Recent Publications

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere
February 21, 2025 — Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners succeed and provides the United States leverage and situational awareness, and (2) anticipating how the People’s Republic of China may exploit its commercial and other activities in the region in times of war... MORE

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere | R. Evan Ellis

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America
February 21, 2025 — President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean have focused U.S. and global attention on the strategic importance of the challenges posed by PRC in the... MORE

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response
February 11, 2025 — In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a live broadcast, the newly elected government of Daniel Noboa declared a “state of internal warfare”... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America
December 18, 2024 — This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the interaction of that presence with the risk of escalating the conflict in the Middle East and weak... MORE

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
WEBINAR

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
November 26, 2024 — While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side... MORE

Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation | R. Evan Ellis

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean
November 12, 2024 — This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating within the region’s Chinese minority communities. It also examines the successes and challenges in coordination between law enforcement and other government entities in the Dutch Caribbean, and between the Dutch Caribbean and the European Netherlands,... MORE

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean | R. Evan Ellis

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay
November 7, 2024 — This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to have on the global logistics system, and its strategic implications in time of war with the United States. It argues that the project is illustrative of how the PRC... MORE

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay | R. Evan Ellis for La Red China y América Latina

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
October 28, 2024 — This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to organized crime, corruption and its role as a transit point for drugs and weapons. The country also... MORE