Recent Publications

Strategic Insights: The Sinister Shadow of Escalating Middle Eastern Sectarianism
January 21, 2016 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill In one of the opening scenes of the 1973 movie, The Exorcist, an older Catholic priest stands among the ruins of the ancient Mesopotamian city of Hatra.1 In the movie, he views an ancient statue of an Assyrian wind demon and stares directly into the stone representation of his enemy’s face. In the background, two extremely... MORE

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Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future of the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East
October 22, 2015 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillView the Executive Summary The threat perceptions of many Arab states aligned with the United States have changed significantly as a result of such dramatic events as the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, the emergence and then fading of the Arab Spring, the rise of Iranian power and Tehran’s nuclear agreement with... MORE

From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
May 12, 2015 — Author: Mr Roman MuzalevskyView the Executive SummaryThe nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 following the most stringent sanctions against Iran to date have opened new prospects for relaxation of tensions between Tehran and the West and for a U.S.-Iranian détente in the long run. The coming to power of new presidential administrations in both the... MORE

Another Brick in the Wall: The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense
April 13, 2015 — Author: Dr Jean-Loup Samaan View the Executive SummaryFor the last 4 decades, Israel has been challenged by the rise of ballistic arsenals in the Middle East. If, at first, the country kept relying on its traditional offensive doctrines, it eventually developed missile defense programs in the early-1980s through U.S.-Israel cooperation and then in... MORE

Strengthening Statehood Capabilities for Successful Transitions in the Middle East / North Africa Region
April 2, 2015 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-KatiriView the Executive SummaryIn this monograph, Dr. Mohammed El-Katiri focuses on the variety of challenges that face reform attempts in the post-revolution Arab countries. He examines underlying factors that have prevented new political elites and post-revolution institutions from successfully implementing essential... MORE

Tribal Militias: An Effective Tool to Counter Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates?
November 18, 2014 — Author: Dr Norman Cigar View the Executive SummaryDespite over a decade of open war, dealing with Al-Qaida and its affiliates in the Middle East is likely to remain a concern for the foreseeable future and will pose a challenge requiring the use of any tool that is likely to be effective in meeting the threat. Developing effective tools to counter... MORE

The Role of Leadership in Transitional States: The Cases of Lebanon, Israel-Palestine
November 18, 2014 — Author: Dr Anastasia Filippidou View the Executive SummaryLeadership is dynamic; it is a continuous process and ever-changing relationship between numerous different factors. The research focuses on political leadership in transitional situations and the efforts of leadership in the transformation process from weak and fragmented states or... MORE

United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World
October 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummaryMilitary and security cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is of continuing importance for the United States, given the region's pivotal location in the Middle East and proximity to Iran. But recent developments in the defense posture of the United States, together with the... MORE

Political and Socio-Economic Change: Revolutions and Their Implications for the U.S. Military
September 9, 2014 — Author: Dr John R Deni View the Executive SummaryDramatic political, economic, and social changes across both the Greater Middle East and Latin America over the last several years—in some instances revolutionary, in others evolutionary—have had profound implications for global security generally and U.S. security specifically. Policymakers in... MORE

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Op-Ed: Syria and the Great Middle Eastern War
July 8, 2014 — Dr. Larry P. GoodsonThe Syrian Civil War is shaping up to do something disastrous to the Middle East—something that has not occurred in modern history. A regional conflagration is coming; indeed, it may already be here. The meltdown currently underway in Iraq is only the first manifestation of the regional war—or perhaps region-wide violence—that... MORE

From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006
May 16, 2014 — Author: Dr Jean-Loup Samaan View the Executive SummaryOver the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. To understand this paradox, the monograph explores the mechanisms of deterrence in the... MORE

Africa’s Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China
December 30, 2013 — Author: Mr David E BrownView the Executive Summary Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world’s superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas is dramatically boosting America’s energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search... MORE