Recent Publications

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

Parameters | Summer 2024
May 29, 2024 — The Summer issue is out! In this edition: "What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; A Major's Perspective “Professional Discourse Is Shaping the Force”; Civil-Military Relations Corner, "Introduction to the US Army War College Civil-Military Relations Center"; "Exploring the Nexus of Military and Society at a 50-Year Milestone" by Patricia M. Shields; For the latest on the Russia-Ukraine War, Middle East, and Professional Development, check out the new issue... MORE

The Politics of Restraint in the Middle East
May 2, 2024 — Domestic constraints make it difficult for the United States to pursue a coherent program of restraint in the Middle East. As events in Gaza revive debates about the appropriate size and scope of the military footprint in the region, this article shows the importance of grounding any revised posture on a firm domestic foundation. Going beyond accounts that blame the obstructionism of a foreign policy establishment, it explores barriers to strategic adjustment and supports its claims through a case study of the Obama administration’s record, drawn from relevant literature, data on the distribution of military capabilities, and interviews with senior officials. ... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

Parameters | Winter 2023–24
November 20, 2023 — The Winter issue is out! In this edition: “Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?” by Bettina Renz and “Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike,” by Harry Halem; CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center”; From deterring major powers, to achieving strategic influence, and beyond... MORE

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters.

This issue consists of two In Focus commentaries which bring to light observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Russia’s Forever Wars: Syria and the Pursuit of Great Power Status
June 1, 2021 — Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteSeptember 2021 marks the sixth anniversary of the Russian Federation’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. A patient, flexible strategy set against irresolute and muddled Western strategies allowed Moscow to achieve its initial aim of preventing the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime... MORE

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Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge
February 6, 2020 — Author: Dr. Jean-Loup SamaanThis monograph explores the emerging challenge of nonstate actors’ anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategies and their implications for the United States and its allies by looking at two regions, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with case studies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis... MORE

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The Russian Military in Contemporary Perspective
September 24, 2019 — Dr. Stephen J. Blank, 2019 American Foreign Policy CouncilWherever one looks, Russia is carrying out aggressive military and informational attacks against the West in Europe, North and South America, the Arctic, and the Middle East. This “war against the West” actually began over a decade ago, but its most jarring and shocking event, the one that... MORE

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Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region
November 15, 2018 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianThis monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area. Although Washington has... MORE

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An Arab NATO in the Making? Middle Eastern Military Cooperation Since 2011
September 1, 2016 — Author: Dr Florence GaubArab military cooperation has been, over the past century, mostly a history of failures. Whether the Arab League’s Defence Pact or the Middle East Command, ideas for collective security in the region all failed to move beyond the state of declarations. Most of the time, Arab states were either at open war or in cold peace... MORE

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