Recent Publications

Rethinking the Relevance of Self-Deterrence
April 24, 2024 — Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars. ... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

Putin Chooses between a Series of Bad Options
November 4, 2022 — Now that Vladimir Putin has chosen a path of escalation in his unnecessary war of aggression against Ukraine, it is imperative Western policymakers know the consequences and how he might escalate further. This podcast examines recent events on the battlefield; the implications of the announced annexation of territory, mobilization of forces, and threats to employ “all means” to defend Russian territory; the domestic ramifications and Russian thinking on “hybrid warfare”; and the possible weaponization of food and energy as Putin determines future escalatory steps. It will assist American and European leaders in determining policies to deal with the ongoing crisis at this moment and prepare for an uncertain future. ... MORE

“The Cuban Missile Crisis: Miscalculation, Nuclear Risks, and the Human Element”
September 14, 2022 — Decisive Point Podcast, Dr. Arthur I. Cyr, leadership, deterrence, Cuba, nuclear weapons, missile crisis... MORE

Underestimated Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
May 5, 2022 — Does it matter if more countries have nuclear weapons? Will the weaponization of space make nuclear weapons less of a threat or even obsolete? In this podcast, author Henry D. Sokolski gives an overview of his monograph, Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, and explores potential future nuclear trends. ... MORE

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition
August 22, 2018 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be?... MORE

Cover for Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition

Strategic Insights: Nuclear Posture Review: Three Reasons the Army Should Care
February 14, 2018 — Author: Dr Michael FitzsimmonsDebate over the Trump administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is now in full and predictable bloom. While many of its conclusions demonstrate continuity with the Obama administration’s modernization plans, controversy has centered on two of the review’s recommendations: to deploy new low-yield weapons on... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: Nuclear Posture Review: Three Reasons the Army Should Care

Should We Let the Bomb Spread?
November 1, 2016 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiNuclear deterrence and nonproliferation no longer enjoy the broad support they once did during the Cold War. Academics and security experts now question the ability of either to cope or check nuclear rogue states or terrorists. On the one hand, America’s closest allies—e.g., Japan and South Korea—believe American nuclear... MORE

Cover for Should We Let the Bomb Spread?

India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
June 1, 2016 — Authors: Mr Yogesh Joshi, Dr Frank O'Donnell, Dr Harsh V PantSince India declared itself a nuclear weapon state in May 1998, its nuclear capabilities have grown significantly. India is now on the verge of acquiring a triad of nuclear delivery systems. Its increasing nuclear profile has also stirred a debate on its stated nuclear doctrine involving... MORE

Cover for India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
December 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiView the Executive Summary With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military... MORE

Strategic Insights: Thinking About Catastrophe: The Army in a Nuclear Armed World
December 14, 2015 — Dr. Steven MetzNothing is more important to American security than nuclear weapons. Despite all the fretting over terrorism, hybrid threats, and conventional aggression, only nuclear weapons can threaten the existence of the United States and destroy the global economy. This is certainly not news to American policymakers and military strategists:... MORE

From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
May 12, 2015 — Author: Mr Roman MuzalevskyView the Executive SummaryThe nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 following the most stringent sanctions against Iran to date have opened new prospects for relaxation of tensions between Tehran and the West and for a U.S.-Iranian détente in the long run. The coming to power of new presidential administrations in both the... MORE