Recent Publications

Prospects for Iran’s New Direction
February 20, 2015 — Author: Mr Keir Giles View the Executive SummaryThis monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful... MORE

Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation
June 17, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryThe U.S. President and nearly all his critics agree that the spread of nuclear weapons and the possibility of their seizure and potential use is the greatest danger facing the United States and the world. Looking at the way government and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear... MORE

Cover for Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation

Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach?
July 30, 2013 — Authors: Mr Henry D Sokolski, Dr Bruno Tertrais View the Executive SummaryAt the height of the Cultural Revolution a Chinese long-range nuclear missile is fired within the country, and the nuclear warhead it is carrying detonates. A French nuclear device is exploded in Algeria during a coup there. The Soviet empire has collapsed, and shots are... MORE

Strategic Stability: Contending Interpretations
February 1, 2013 — Authors: Mr Elbridge A Colby, Mr Michael S Gerson What is strategic stability and why is it important? This edited collection offers the most current authoritative survey of this topic, which is central to U.S. strategy in the field of nuclear weapons and great power relations. A variety of authors and leading experts in the field of strategic... MORE

Op-Ed: Can Sanctions Be More Effective Than Military Action In Iran?
December 7, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The United States and its allies are currently seeking to use international sanctions to prevent Iran from developing the technology leading to a nuclear weapons capability. It remains uncertain if the sanctions will be effective, and the U.S. leadership has correspondingly announced that all options—including military... MORE

The Next Arms Race
July 1, 2012 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low... MORE

Op-Ed: Heading Toward the NATO Summit
April 9, 2012 — Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland From the perspective of the Obama administration, the last NATO Summit that was held in Lisbon in November 2010 was critically important and was described as a great success in its aftermath. President Obama arrived in office with the goal of rebuilding American alliances, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)... MORE

Busting the Myths About the North Korea Problem
February 23, 2012 — Dr. David Lai North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-il passed away on December 17, 2011. His servants followed his will to crown his 28-year-old son, Kim Jong-un, as the “Great Successor” to the Kim family dynasty. Skepticism abounds about the “untested” young emperor's ability to continue dynastic rule in North Korea. There are also speculations that... MORE

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy
November 1, 2011 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank The current U.S. reset policy with Russia involves efforts to blaze a path of mutual cooperation on arms control and proliferation. In arms control, we see determined administration attempts to promote greater nuclear reductions in the direction of nuclear zero, including reductions in tactical nuclear weapons. This... MORE

Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History and the Low Probability of Disarmament
November 1, 2011 — Author: Mr Jonathan Pearl A vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and... MORE

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future
November 1, 2011 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank This book presents several essays analyzing Russia’s extensive nuclear agenda and the issues connected with it. It deals with strategy, doctrine, European, Eurasian, and East Asian security agendas, as well as the central U.S.-Russia nuclear and arms control equations. This work brings together American, European, and... MORE

Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risk
December 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski Unfortunately, a nuclear terrorist act is only one—and hardly the most probable—of several frightening security threats Pakistan now faces or poses. We know that traditional acts of terrorism and conventional military crises in Southwest Asia have nearly escalated into wars and, more recently, even threatened Indian and... MORE