Recent Publications

Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East
September 1, 2009 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill A central purpose of this monograph is to reexamine two earlier conflicts for insights that may be relevant for ongoing dangers during limited wars involving nations possessing chemical or biological weapons or emerging nuclear arsenals. These conflicts are the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War. Both of these... MORE

The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program
February 25, 2008 — Author: Dr Daniel A Pinkston North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs have drawn international attention for years. In the early 1960s, Pyongyang began to pursue the capability to produce advanced weapons systems, including rockets and missiles. However, foreign assistance and technology, particularly from China and the Soviet... MORE

Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War
January 1, 2008 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski This book, completed just before Pakistani President Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in November 2007, reflects research that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center commissioned over the last 2 years. It tries to characterize specific nuclear problems that the ruling Pakistani government faces with the aim... MORE

China’s Nuclear Forces: Operations, Training, Doctrine, Command, Control and Campaign Planning
May 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Larry M Wortzel Recent books and journal articles published in China provide new insights into nuclear doctrine, operations, training, and the employment of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic rocket forces. The major insights come from exploiting sections of a doctrinal text published for PLA institutions of higher military... MORE

Counterterrorism in African Failed States: Challenges and Potential Solutions
April 1, 2006 — Author: COL Thomas A Dempsey Terrorist groups operating in Sub-Saharan Africa failed states have demonstrated the ability to avoid the scrutiny of Western counterterrorism officials, while supporting and facilitating terrorist attacks on the United States and its partners. The potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists makes terrorist... MORE

Preventive War and Its Alternatives: The Lessons of History
April 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Dan Reiter The 2002 National Security Strategy suggested preventive attacks, diplomacy, deterrence, and other policies as means of curtailing threats presented by the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons to terrorists and rogue states. The author analyzes which mix of these policies might best and most cost... MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE

Welcome Iran and North Korea to the Nuclear Club: You’re Targeted
June 1, 2005 — Author: LTC Raymond A Millen Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the June 2005 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Dismantling North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Programs
April 1, 2005 — Author: COL David J Bishop This paper examines the choices available to the United States for dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons programs. The options range from doing nothing to executing policies of engagement, containment, or preemption. Each option has advantages and disadvantages, and there are numerous factors influencing the problem... MORE

Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
January 1, 2004 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, there is a grave risk it would be tempted to provide them to terrorists. After all, mass casualty terrorism done by proxies has worked well for Iran to date. The fear about what Iran might do with nuclear weapons is fed by the concern that Tehran has no clear... MORE

Saddam’s Strategy: No To Nuclear Weapons; Yes To Biologicals
November 1, 2002 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the November 2002 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Nuclear Threats from Small States
June 1, 1994 — Author: Mr Jerome H Kahan That are the policy implications regarding proliferation and counterproliferation of nuclear weapons among Third World states? How does deterrence operate outside the parameters of superpower confrontation as defined by the cold war's elaborate system of constraints enforced by concepts like mutual assured destruction, and... MORE