Recent Publications

Rethinking the Relevance of Self-Deterrence
April 24, 2024 — Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars. ... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition
August 22, 2018 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be?... MORE

Cover for Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition

Strategic Insights: Nuclear Posture Review: Three Reasons the Army Should Care
February 14, 2018 — Author: Dr Michael FitzsimmonsDebate over the Trump administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is now in full and predictable bloom. While many of its conclusions demonstrate continuity with the Obama administration’s modernization plans, controversy has centered on two of the review’s recommendations: to deploy new low-yield weapons on... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: Nuclear Posture Review: Three Reasons the Army Should Care

Should We Let the Bomb Spread?
November 1, 2016 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiNuclear deterrence and nonproliferation no longer enjoy the broad support they once did during the Cold War. Academics and security experts now question the ability of either to cope or check nuclear rogue states or terrorists. On the one hand, America’s closest allies—e.g., Japan and South Korea—believe American nuclear... MORE

Cover for Should We Let the Bomb Spread?

India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
June 1, 2016 — Authors: Mr Yogesh Joshi, Dr Frank O'Donnell, Dr Harsh V PantSince India declared itself a nuclear weapon state in May 1998, its nuclear capabilities have grown significantly. India is now on the verge of acquiring a triad of nuclear delivery systems. Its increasing nuclear profile has also stirred a debate on its stated nuclear doctrine involving... MORE

Cover for India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific

Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation
June 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryThe U.S. President and nearly all his critics agree that the spread of nuclear weapons and the possibility of their seizure and potential use is the greatest danger facing the United States and the world. Looking at the way government and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear... MORE

Cover for Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation

Op-Ed: Can Sanctions Be More Effective Than Military Action In Iran?
December 7, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The United States and its allies are currently seeking to use international sanctions to prevent Iran from developing the technology leading to a nuclear weapons capability. It remains uncertain if the sanctions will be effective, and the U.S. leadership has correspondingly announced that all options—including military... MORE

The Next Arms Race
July 1, 2012 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low... MORE

Op-Ed: Heading Toward the NATO Summit
April 9, 2012 — Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland From the perspective of the Obama administration, the last NATO Summit that was held in Lisbon in November 2010 was critically important and was described as a great success in its aftermath. President Obama arrived in office with the goal of rebuilding American alliances, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)... MORE

Busting the Myths About the North Korea Problem
February 23, 2012 — Dr. David Lai North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-il passed away on December 17, 2011. His servants followed his will to crown his 28-year-old son, Kim Jong-un, as the “Great Successor” to the Kim family dynasty. Skepticism abounds about the “untested” young emperor's ability to continue dynastic rule in North Korea. There are also speculations that... MORE

Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risk
December 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski Unfortunately, a nuclear terrorist act is only one—and hardly the most probable—of several frightening security threats Pakistan now faces or poses. We know that traditional acts of terrorism and conventional military crises in Southwest Asia have nearly escalated into wars and, more recently, even threatened Indian and... MORE