Recent Publications

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces
January 14, 2025 — The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and administrative and political factors, struggle with varying degrees of effectiveness to adapt. This paper... MORE

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces | R. Evan Ellis

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the Future Challenges for Hellscape
January 14, 2025 — In a future Taiwan contingency, the United States and its allies and partners are poised to leverage large-scale autonomous unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations to counter China’s anti-access/area denial strategy. This approach aims to mitigate... MORE

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the Future Challenges for Hellscape | Jake Rinaldi and Jake Vartanian

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific
January 8, 2025 — Applying the military instrument of power is essential to deterrence and assurance in the Indo-Pacific. This essay explores the underappreciated application of Landpower in this critical region and assesses the effects of a few activities that assure allies and partners and deter the People’s Republic of China. The discreet examples in this short article hopefully provide a better foundation for understanding military dynamics in the region and allow for better future assessments of integrated deterrence efforts... MORE

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific | Colonel Richard D. Butler and Jimmy Bell

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical Mineral Procurement
October 17, 2024 — Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed seven materials as critical in the short term because of their uses for magnets, batteries, and fuel cells: dysprosium, neodymium, gallium, graphite, terbium, iridium, and cobalt... MORE

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity
October 15, 2024 — Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners. ... MORE

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania
October 9, 2024 — The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a key strategic partner on the African continent.1 Commemorating 60 years of bilateral relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Tanzania, the exercise included antipiracy and counterterrorism training events that enabled the PLA to train in Tanzania’s complex terrain alongside elements of the Tanzanian People’s Defense Forces (TPDF)... MORE

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania | Jake Vartanian

Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines
October 4, 2024 — Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution... MORE

The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation
September 18, 2024 — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security cooperation. In recent months, US officials have increasingly called attention to the support that China is providing to Russia’s defense industry, which has helped Russia to... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation |
Brian G. Carlson

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander for Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45
July 11, 2024 — Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr. commanded US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. He served as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945, executing the range of what are now the Army war-fighting and Joint functions... MORE

PODCAST: Chinese Strategy and Statecraft: Coercion and Competition in the Indo-Pacific
June 24, 2024 — What are the objectives of China’s foreign and security policies under Xi Jinping? What is the role of Australia and other middle powers in responding to Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific? Are the United States’ China policies set to change with future shifts in the international order? In this episode, Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Dan... MORE

Chinese Strategy and Statecraft: Coercion and Competition in the Indo-Pacific•
Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Dan Blumenthal
The National Security Podcast

PODCAST: Paramilitaries Abroad: China’s Use of Nontraditional Security Forces
June 24, 2024 — Episode 107 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how China uses its paramilitary and internal security forces to project power abroad and build global influence.Our guests begin by dissecting the Chinese security apparatus: contrasting the People’s Liberation Army with the CCP’s internal police forces and paramilitaries. They then explore how... MORE

Paramilitaries Abroad: China’s Use of Nontraditional Security Forces
Sheena Chestnut Greitens and LTG Charles W. Hooper
The Irregular Warfare Podcast