Recent Publications

Assessing the Zeitenwende
February 27, 2025 — Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of the Zeitenwende upended 50 years of German Ostpolitik, challenging the fundamental premises upon which German policy toward both Russia and the broader European security order were based. After the Soviet collapse, Germany pursued a Russia-first policy in the post-Soviet space, and its relations with Russia’s neighbors—including Ukraine—were determined by the primacy of ties with Russia post German reunification. Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, relations with Russia have dramatically deteriorated, and Germany’s support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine War has assumed priority in Berlin’s remaining ties with Moscow. But though the German government has remained committed to this new policy, German public opinion remains divided over the reversal of Ostpolitik, and recent elections in the eastern Länder indicate growing support for parties which favor discontinuing support for Ukraine and restoring ties with Russia. The Zeitenwende could be reversed, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and on domestic political developments both in Germany and in the United States. This chapter will examine the historical evolution of German-Russian ties and provide a scorecard for the economic, energy, and political impacts of the Zeitenwende. It will discuss the Russian view of Germany’s new policies and examine how Germany has supported Ukraine since February 2022. This chapter concludes with the implications of the Zeitenwende for new leadership in Washington and Berlin, and for future US-German cooperation on Russia and Ukraine... MORE

Assessing the Zeitenwende
February 27, 2025 — Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s February 27, 2024, Zeitenwende speech, a long-neglected vocabulary reentered the German public discourse: national and collective defense (landesverteidigung and bündnisverteidigung). In subsequent speeches and through Germany’s first defense guidelines, published in 2023, the chancellor and his government emphasized national and collective defense must once again become the Bundeswehr’s core task—which had not been the case since the end of the Cold War... MORE

Flag of the European Union and Flag of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Assessing the Zeitenwende
February 27, 2025 — Changes in Germany’s perception of the People’s Republic of China, its global role, and its policies had been underway for some time, but the Zeitenwende meant particularly two things for Germany’s China policy. First, Germany recognized China did not stand at Germany’s and the West’s sides in condemning and aiming to stop Russia, but rather, on the contrary, China turned out to be an active Russia-neutral actor that has been using the Russian invasion of Ukraine for its own goals. And second, Germany acknowledged its critical dependency on imports and vulnerable supply chains from China at a time of conflicting paradigms and an increasing weaponization of trade... MORE

Assessing the Zeitenwende
February 27, 2025 — Editors and Contributors... MORE

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere
February 21, 2025 — Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners succeed and provides the United States leverage and situational awareness, and (2) anticipating how the People’s Republic of China may exploit its commercial and other activities in the region in times of war... MORE

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere | R. Evan Ellis

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America
February 21, 2025 — President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean have focused U.S. and global attention on the strategic importance of the challenges posed by PRC in the... MORE

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather
February 20, 2025 — In 2024, the US Department of Defense promulgated the latest edition of its Arctic Strategy, highlighting the need to enhance domain awareness and operational readiness to safeguard US and allied interests in the Arctic region. The Arctic possesses vast resource potential, is geographically linked to the US homeland and allied territories, and is a strategic avenue for US force projection in the Indo-Pacific theater... MORE

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather | Jake Vartanian

The American Way of Studying War: What Is It Good For? (Podcast)
February 20, 2025 — Academic military historians, government institutions, and defense practitioners have unique purposes for advancing the study of war that influence the way they consume and produce history. Although there is substantial scholarship covering how the discipline of military history has changed since the late nineteenth century, the literature... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response
February 11, 2025 — In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a live broadcast, the newly elected government of Daniel Noboa declared a “state of internal warfare”... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter I
January 31, 2025 — With the start of the New Year, the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) would like to share with you the team’s latest analysis and insights on the People's Liberation Army (PLA).If you find value in this newsletter, please share it with colleagues and invite them to subscribe.Quarterly Highlights: Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of... MORE

Book Review: Invisible Generals: Rediscovering Family Legacy, and a Quest to Honor America’s First Black Generals
January 31, 2025 — Author Doug Melville’s multigenerational biography presents the little-known story of his family and two of its military veterans who always believed in the American dream—Brigadier General Benjamin O. Davis Sr., the first Black US Army general, and his son, General Benjamin O. Davis Jr., the first Black US Air Force brigadier general. Dr. Wylie W. Johnson reviewed the book because he was so impressed when he heard then–Brigadier General Benjamin O. Davis Jr. speak in chapel at his evangelical college... MORE

Cover for Invisible Generals: Rediscovering Family Legacy, and a Quest to Honor America’s First Black Generals

Book Review: Airpower Pioneers: From Billy Mitchell to Dave Deptula
January 31, 2025 — In this review, Robert E. Underwood III bills Airpower Pioneers as a refreshing read that highlights the tension between bureaucracy and innovation against a backdrop of the lives of 12 aviation pioneers. The importance of relationships and their relevance adds a layer of depth to the book... MORE

Cover for Airpower Pioneers: From Billy Mitchell to Dave Deptula