Recent Publications

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
December 10, 2024 — The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind. ... MORE

Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System
December 5, 2024 — The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned around the country, a prolonged war of attrition will require more than movement of forces from one side of the country to another... MORE

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System | Joshua M. Arostegui

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
December 5, 2024 — The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts... MORE

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz

“A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023”
December 4, 2024 — In this episode of Decisive Point, authors Michael T. Hackett and John A. Nagl delve into insights from the article “A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023.” They analyze the evolution of warfare tactics between the first and second year of the Russia-Ukraine War, highlighting the shift from rapid maneuvers to trench warfare characterized by saturation and attrition. The discussion emphasizes... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast Ep 5-27: “A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023” | Michael T. Hackett, John A. Nagl

SSI Live 114 – The Role of European Allies in the Ukraine War
December 2, 2024 — America’s European allies have played a critical role in providing military assistance to Ukraine. Can Europeans maintain that effort or even increase it if the United States reduces its role? What lessons can the United States learn from the role of its European allies in this war, which might be applicable to future rounds of strategic... MORE

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20
November 26, 2024 — From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Beyond the dominant role of Xi and China in each summit, the three distinct performances by Xi also provide important... MORE

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS,
APEC and the G20 | R. Evan Ellis

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
November 26, 2024 — While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side... MORE

Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation | R. Evan Ellis

Parameters | Winter 2024–25
November 21, 2024 — Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment... MORE

"Restoring Priority on Cultural Skill Sets for Modern Military Professionals"
November 21, 2024 — In this episode, Colonel Daniel W. Henk (US Army, retired), PhD, and Dr. Allison Abbe discuss cultural education in the US military. They emphasize the importance of cultural capability across the competition and conflict continuum and address how the Department of Defense can build on service culture centers’ efforts to address the LREC skills military personnel need to work effectively across cultural boundaries, whether during conflict against an adversary or in interoperability with allies and partners... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
November 14, 2024 — This episode’s topic is A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, with Dr. John A. Nagl and Colonel Katie Crombe. They discuss the project’s origins and its goal to extract key lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War for US military strategy. Nagl outlines the collaborative research behind the publication, while Crombe highlights strategic lessons related to US military preparedness... MORE

Conversations on Strategy - Dr. John A. Nagl and COL Katie Crombe - A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean
November 12, 2024 — This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating within the region’s Chinese minority communities. It also examines the successes and challenges in coordination between law enforcement and other government entities in the Dutch Caribbean, and between the Dutch Caribbean and the European Netherlands,... MORE

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean | R. Evan Ellis