Recent Publications

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris | The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be performed by Chinese companies in Nicaragua highlights China’s deepening strategic position in that country, with significant implications for the United States and the region. Nicaragua’s December 2021 recognition of China and its corresponding... MORE

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
December 20, 2023 — John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
John R. Deni

Military Dogs of World War II Wylie W. Johnson
December 20, 2023 — Book Review: Military Dogs of World War II Wylie W. Johnson Author: Susan Bulanda | Reviewed by Reverend Dr. Wylie W. Johnson, chaplain (retired), US Army War College class of 2010 |In total war, the nation calls on everyone to direct all resources toward victory—during World War II, that call extended to man’s best friend. Retired military... MORE

Book Review: Military Dogs of World War II
Wylie W. Johnson
Author: Susan Bulanda
Reviewed by Reverend Dr. Wylie W. Johnson, chaplain (retired), US Army War College class of 2010

Number One Realist: Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare
December 20, 2023 — Book Review: Number One Realist: Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare Author: Nathaniel L. Moir | Reviewed by John A. Nagl, professor of warfighting studies, US Army War College | Counterinsurgency expert John A. Nagl reviews the “long-overdue” biography of the American political scientist Bernard Fall who, as Nagl writes, was “always... MORE

Book Review: Number One Realist: Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare
Author: Nathaniel L. Moir
Reviewed by John A. Nagl, professor of warfighting studies, US Army War College

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023 — Sheena Chestnut Greitens | The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

War of Supply
November 22, 2023 — Book Review: War of Supply Author: David D. Dworak | Reviewed by Dr. John A. Bonin, consultant, US Army War College | The reviewer notes, “While there are thousands of books about World War II, there are relatively few on the war in the Mediterranean and fewer on its logistics.” Dworak provides just that, with a chronological account of Operation... MORE

Book Review: War of Supply
John A. Bonin
Author: David D. Dworak
Reviewed by Dr. John A. Bonin, consultant, US Army War College
The reviewer notes, “While there are thousands of books about World War II, there are relatively few on the war in the Mediterranean and fewer on its logistics.” Dworak provides just that, with a chronological account of Operation Torch in North Africa; Operations Husky, Avalanche, and Shingle in Sicily and Italy; and Operation Dragoon in southern France.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/30

Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945
November 22, 2023 — Book Review: Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945 Author: Richard Overy | Reviewed by Jonathan Klug, colonel, US Army, and assistant professor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College | Many track the start of World War II to Poland in 1939. In Blood Ruins, Richard Overy contends the 1931 Japanese... MORE

Book Review: Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945
Jonathan Klug
Author: Richard Overy
Reviewed by Jonathan Klug, colonel, US Army, and assistant professor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
Teaser: Many track the start of World War II to Poland in 1939. In Blood Ruins, Richard Overy contends the 1931 Japanese invasion of Manchuria was the start of an Asian war that later merged into the 1939 war in Europe when Japan attacked America in 1939. The book addresses policy and strategy as well as operational, technical, and tactical issues.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/29