Recent Publications

“Raven Sentry: Employing AI for Indications and Warnings in Afghanistan”
July 30, 2024 — US Army Colonel Thomas W. Spahr discusses the development and implementation of the AI model, Raven Sentry, to predict attacks on Afghan centers using unclassified data sources. He highlights the need for innovative solutions in Afghanistan as coalition presence waned. The success of Raven Sentry emphasizes the importance of leadership, collaboration with the commercial sector, and utilizing... MORE

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst
July 25, 2024 — As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the country over the past 25 years of my career in government and the private sector following Venezuela leads... MORE

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response
July 22, 2024 — The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly. The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability of the Putin administration in Russia to sustain its costly campaign. The new international... MORE

“Iraq’s Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform”
July 22, 2024 — Andrea Malouf, a consultant and adviser, discusses her article, “Iraq’s Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform.” She emphasizes the importance of defining clear end states for successful reform, avoiding a sole focus on training, making strategic decisions based on practical constraints, questioning assumptions and biases, collaborating with partner organizations, understanding public perceptions,... MORE

Book Review: Info Ops: From World War I to the Twitter Era
July 19, 2024 — Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz calls Info Ops a “must-read for any future combatant commander concerned about how our enemies use information and communication technologies within a contested environment to advance their causes and wreak havoc within an increasingly polarized society.” He overviews the book’s topics, including World War I and World War II, social media, Soviet Union propaganda, and even Israel and Hamas, and discusses their immediate relevance, “highly recommend[ing] Info Ops to US Army War College students.”... MORE

Book Cover: Info Ops: From World War I to the Twitter Era

Book Review: Skies of Thunder: The Deadly World War II Mission over the Roof of the World
July 19, 2024 — Dr. Heather Venable, course director, Airpower Strategy and Operations, at the Air Command and Staff College, insightfully analyzes multifaceted author and translator Caroline Alexander’s latest history of the China-Burma-India Theater. Venable overviews the book’s four main elements and the two structural topics—the “ ‘Hump’ of the Himalayas” and the land bridge. She praises the author’s “beguiling human and geographical detail” that “brings the CBI Theater to life while casting a critical eye on the human frailties of her research subjects.”... MORE

Book Cover: Skies of Thunder: The Deadly World War II Mission over the Roof of the World

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Josh Arostegui
July 18, 2024 — In episode 14 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui discusses some of the more salient points regarding how prepared the PRC is for a protracted war. He describes how the PLA remains designed to execute large-scale combat operations through the existence of unique PLA reserve, militia-centric organizations, and deep military integration within the country’s civilian infrastructure... MORE

“Weaponizing Food Insecurity: The Violent Extremist Threat to Precision Agriculture in the United States”
July 18, 2024 — This episode explores the intersection of food insecurity and precision agriculture in the United States with author Michael W. Parrott, an expert in Special Operations Forces counterintelligence. Drawing from his experience in combat zones and research, Parrott discusses the vulnerabilities of the agricultural industry and the potential nexus with violent extremist organizations globally... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
July 15, 2024 — While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s Republic of China has avoided directly challenging Western-style democracy as a system of governance... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
R. Evan Ellis

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander for Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45
July 11, 2024 — Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr. commanded US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. He served as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945, executing the range of what are now the Army war-fighting and Joint functions... MORE

“What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative”
July 10, 2024 — American accounts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) contend that it is a coherent grand strategy that reflects Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. These accounts ignore the BRI’s fragmented nature, whereby Chinese provinces have been pivotal actors in its development and implementation. Furthermore, these accounts disregard the agency of participant countries and their capacity to shape the BRI... MORE