R. Evan Ellis
©2025 R. Evan Ellis
Description:
Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements create options for the PRC to exploit against the United States in times of war.
It advocates for new effects-based strategic concepts for how the DoD can strengthen cooperation with the region and limit PRC access through enhanced security cooperation and leveraging partners’ valuation of their relationships with the United States to influence their choices regarding cooperation with the PRC and gain better situational awareness for responding to China. Finally, it discusses how the United States should work with regional partners to plan for likely PRC actions in the region in times of war, leveraging the presence, relationships, and knowledge created through engagement.
Message from the author:
The in-depth monograph ... was written prior to the dramatic domestic and foreign policy changes introduced by the new US Administration.
This monograph focuses on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean, and its impact on US strategic equities in the region, from a US Department of Defense (DoD) perspective, and recommendations for the DoD role in a whole-of-government response.
This work warns of multiple adverse impacts on U.S. and regional interests:
- The increasing presence of Chinese companies, products, and people-to-people networks in Latin America—and particularly their presence in digital architectures—gives the People’s Republic of China influence and potential access to sensitive information, putting sovereign decision making and intellectual property at risk;
- PRC engagement with illiberal regimes facilitates these regimes’ consolidation and continuation of power, indirectly contributing to the risk they pose as hosts of criminal organizations, terrorist organizations, and anti-US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and
- PRC security engagement in the region and the physical presence of PRC-based companies—particularly in ports and space—give the People’s Republic of China options against the United States during a potential conflict.
This work argues, to contribute more effectively to the American whole-of-government response to the PRC, the Department of Defense must design its response to these challenges around strategic concepts focused on the effects the department can reasonably achieve through the tools at its disposal, better resourcing and repairing those tools where necessary to achieve the intended effects.
Promising areas include:
- Using security assistance to help democratic partners succeed;
- Leveraging the benefit partners perceive in DoD security assistance to strengthen incentives for those partners to continue working with the United States and limit their engagement with the People’s Republic of China;
- Using DoD presence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries—and military relationships of trust— to support situational awareness about PRC activities and how best to respond; and
- Preparing, with partners in the region or alone where appropriate, to respond to likely PRC activities in the region in times of war.
This monograph recommends the Department of Defense:
- Encourage more thinking within relevant combatant commands, organizations (which are focused on the future war-fighting environment), and academic institutions regarding effects-oriented strategic concepts for countering China.
- More adequately resource instruments key to the effects these counter-China strategic concepts contemplate, with an emphasis on professional military education (PME) and training and other security assistance.
- Increase resources and instruments for coordinating with other US government agencies in the conceptualization and execution of counter-China efforts.
- Accelerate and institutionalize fast-track responses to deliver needed resources to partners in critical security states and political transitions.
- Streamline planning and programming for partner defense needs.
- Eliminate, where possible, program taxes and oversight organizations that increase costs and decrease the responsiveness of security-assistance activities.
- Change the incentives within the foreign area officer (FAO) community and regional security cooperation office teams to decrease risk aversion in initiative taking.
- Better message the complex value proposition of why working with the United States and minimizing exposure to PRC security and other critical sectors is in the partner’s national interest.
It is my hope that as the current Administration, the Defense Department, and others including the U.S. Congress and independent oversight organizations with roles to play in protecting and pursuing U.S. national security, that this analysis, and these recommendations may serve those efforts.
– R. Evan Ellis
Keywords:
China, Latin America, Caribbean, security cooperation, PRC commercial activities, people-to-people networks, Department of Defense, Western Hemisphere
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