Recent Publications

What Will Happen to Syria’s Christians?
May 5, 2014 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Syrian civil war is widely understood to have a strong sectarian component. In this conflict, Bashar Assad’s Alawite–dominated regime is seeking to crush an uprising led by majority Sunni Arabs. The Alawites are a branch of Shi’ite Islam and have been supported by Shi’ite allies including Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group... MORE

Russian Military Transformation – Goal In Sight?
May 5, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThe Russian Armed Forces have been undergoing major structural reform since 2008. Despite change at the most senior levels of leadership, the desired endstate for Russia's military is now clear; but this endstate is determined by a flawed political perception of the key threats... MORE

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Russia After Putin
May 2, 2014 — Author: Dr Richard J Krickus View the Executive SummaryDespite many obstacles, the leadership in Washington and Moscow must find ways to address security threats even as the United States rebalances toward Asia. Moreover, he agrees with prominent statesmen like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger that ultimately, Russia must be integrated into... MORE

A Soldier’s Morality, Religion, and Our Professional Ethic: Does the Army’s Culture Facilitate Integration, Character Development, and Trust in the Profession?
April 30, 2014 — Authors: COL Alexander P Shine, Dr Don M SniderView the Executive Summary The authors argue that an urgent leadership issue has arisen which is strongly, but not favorably, influencing our professional culture—a hostility toward religion and its correct expressions within the military. Setting aside the role of Chaplains as a separate issue, the... MORE

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The Evolution of Los Zetas in Mexico and Central America: Sadism as an Instrument of Cartel Warfare
April 25, 2014 — Author: Dr George W Grayson View the Executive SummaryThe United States has diplomatic relations with 194 independent nations. Of these, none is more important to America than Mexico in terms of trade, investment, tourism, natural resources, migration, energy, and security. In recent years, narco-violence has afflicted Mexico with more than 50,000... MORE

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Op-Ed: The POST “Post Cold War” Era in Europe
April 24, 2014 — Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine reflects neither strategic wisdom nor military strength. In fact, it reflects just the opposite. Putin invested over $50 billion and significant personal capital in the Sochi Olympics and the upcoming G8 Summit. That has now been squandered. It was clearly humiliating... MORE

Assessing the People’s Liberation Army in the Hu Jintao Era
April 22, 2014 — Authors: Mr Roy Kamphausen, Dr David Lai, Mr Travis Tanner View the Executive SummaryThe 2012 PLA (People’s Liberation Army) conference took place at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was making its leadership transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. The conference discussion focused on the developments in China’s national security and... MORE

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Augmenting Our Influence: Alliance Revitalization and Partner Development
April 16, 2014 — Author: Dr John R Deni View the Executive SummaryAs the United States and its allies prepare to withdraw most of their military forces from Afghanistan and following the end of the war in Iraq, fundamental questions have arisen over the future of American Landpower. Among them are the role of allies and partners in terms of contributing to the... MORE

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Russia’s Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences
March 31, 2014 — Author: Dr Ariel CohenView the Executive Summary The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a... MORE

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Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour
March 19, 2014 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray View the Executive SummaryThe challenge that is defense planning includes: "educated futurology" and the humanities as methodological approaches; futurists and scenarios, trend spotting and defense analysis; the impossibility of science in studying the future; the impossibility of verification by empirical testing of... MORE

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Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map?
March 12, 2014 — Author: Mr Bill Park View the Executive SummaryThe withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy... MORE

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Op-Ed: Balancing The Joint Force: Defense and Military Challenges Through 2020
March 11, 2014 — Dr. John R. Deni As America’s involvement in large-scale combat operations in Afghanistan comes to an end this year, Washington’s attention, as well as its resources, will shift to address other pressing national security concerns. Some of the most likely security challenges that might threaten vital American interests over the next 5-7 years are... MORE