Recent Publications

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere
February 21, 2025 — Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners succeed and provides the United States leverage and situational awareness, and (2) anticipating how the People’s Republic of China may exploit its commercial and other activities in the region in times of war... MORE

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere | R. Evan Ellis

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024 — Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty... MORE

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine
Antulio J. Echevarria II
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Mexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated. Although Chinese migrants formed an important part in Mexico’s national story, the perceived “otherness” of the Chinese community and competition for work led to occasional violence against ethnic Chinese. With the contemporary expansion of the PRC economy, the position of... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 — John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his country would not receive a firm timetable for membership in NATO stole the show at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius last week... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
July 14, 2023 — John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius Summit concluded, NATO observers can take a breath — and take a step back to see what was really accomplished at the meeting,... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
John R. Deni

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
July 10, 2023 — Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less... MORE

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
July 10, 2023 — Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation
July 6, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis The Caribbean faces growing security challenges, ranging from geopolitical tensions to armed violence and the gang epidemic, exacerbated by drug trafficking and competition for drug routes. The region has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, mass migration, and money laundering. Caribbean countries require integrated solutions... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation, R. Evan Ellis, SSI Worldwide

The Trouble with China’s Global Civilization Initiative (on The Diplomat)
June 1, 2023 — R. Evan EllisHistory is marked by the recurring tragedy of publics rallying around leaders with attractive-sounding rhetoric, from new constitutions to government-led development and social justice, to prosperity through privatization. Whether on the right or the left, the most consistent outcome is to empower and benefit the elites selling the... MORE

Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising
May 17, 2023 — Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from... MORE

Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising
Mitchell G. Klingenberg
US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press

Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations
May 9, 2023 — Robert E. Hamilton A debate over the nature of the China-Russia relationship has raged for almost two decades. One side believes the two are strategic partners; the other believes their ties are an “axis of convenience” lacking depth.Understanding the true nature of their relationship is of vital importance to U.S. national security. A true... MORE

Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations
Robert E. Hamilton