Recent Publications

Toward a New Normal in Transatlantic Collective Defense
May 25, 2022 — With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its third month, it is already possible to draw some important lessons from the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) It has fundamentally altered security on the continent, prompting a reappraisal of where and how NATO allies... MORE

Would a Russian Coup Solve Anything?
May 13, 2022 — Putin’s successor would face the same political and geographic conditions that led him to confrontation. Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in the Wall Street Journal Some Western observers hope Vladimir Putin will be overthrown in a coup. While the likelihood of such an event is debatable, one thing is certain: If Mr. Putin were removed in a coup, whoever replaces him would face the same domestic political incentives and disincentives, …... MORE

President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the military parade in Red Square, Moscow, to mark the 77th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Lessons from Russia’s Latin America engagement over Ukraine
May 9, 2022 — Dr. R. Evan Ellis, 2022 Russia’s engagement with Latin America after its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the Latin American response to the invasion, illustrates the growing strategic challenge to the U.S. from the survival and proliferation of populist authoritarian regimes in the Western Hemisphere. It also hints at opportunities for Russian... MORE

Navigating New Threats: NATO’s Posture on Emerging Technologies
March 8, 2022 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann, Dr. Carol Evans, 2022The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a volatile global security environment. Climate change will challenge international stability through natural disasters, migration crises, and land degradation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended peace in Europe, and the COVID-19 pandemic reminded the... MORE

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America Needs a Permanent Military Presence in the Baltics, and Here’s Why
September 21, 2021 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2021 in Defense NewsWith the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the U.S. military footprint overseas, it’s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there and sometimes not — especially while a more permanent U.S... MORE

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Germany Has a Math Problem, and It’s about to Get Worse
September 9, 2021 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann, 2021, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS)What the numbers say about the energy landscapeIn this traditional state of Bavaria where election banners offering defense of “Heimat” (Homeland) seized the day in the last election, the posters wedged between ancient church domes on cobblestone streets now tout... MORE

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Russia’s Forever Wars: Syria and the Pursuit of Great Power Status
June 1, 2021 — Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteSeptember 2021 marks the sixth anniversary of the Russian Federation’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. A patient, flexible strategy set against irresolute and muddled Western strategies allowed Moscow to achieve its initial aim of preventing the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime... MORE

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Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization
April 8, 2021 — Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteThe relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) original adversary and one of its... MORE

Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization:
Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West

Rollback redux: A new (old) framework for dealing with Russia
October 15, 2020 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2020 in the HillWith ongoing Russian efforts to interfere in an election just weeks away, not to mention Moscow’s efforts to militarily provoke the West and assassinate political rivals at home and abroad, it’s never been more clear that the United States needs a new approach to Russia. Despite releasing in 2017 what was widely... MORE

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China’s Economic Statecraft in Europe during the Pandemic
October 9, 2020 — Dr. John R. Deni and Jake Shatzer, Oct 2020 in War on the RocksThe novel coronavirus pandemic has unleashed an immense shock to the global economy. In Europe, the gross domestic product among the countries that use the euro has dropped by over 12 percent while unemployment rates have risen to nearly 8 percent. Many countries are unlikely to reach... MORE

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A Changing International Order? Implications for the Security Environment
October 1, 2020 — Dr. Carol Evans, Christopher Ankersen, William G. Braun III, Ferry de Kerckhove, Kathryn M. Fisher, 2020Each year, the Kingston Consortium on International Security (KCIS)—a partnership of the academy and the military—organize a conference on international security. This conference seeks to inform debate and advance knowledge in the field of... MORE

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NATO Needs to Focus on the Black Sea
August 4, 2020 — Robert E. Hamilton, 2020, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteWilliam of Ockham would like a word with those who worry more about a potential Russian invasion of the Baltics than ongoing interventions in the Balkans.“Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation” is to be preferred, wrote William of Ockham, an injunction that some Western... MORE

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