Recent Publications

Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond
July 21, 2014 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummaryRegime change during the Arab Spring allowed Islamist political forces that had long been marginalized to achieve political influence in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Morocco’s first government led by an Islamist party has been in power since January 2012. This trend caused widespread concern... MORE

European Missile Defense and Russia
July 17, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the history of missile defense and the current dialogue from a Russian perspective, in order to explain the root causes of Russian alarm. Specific recommendations for managing the Russia relationship in the context of missile defense are given. Important... MORE

Op-Ed: Syria and the Great Middle Eastern War
July 8, 2014 — Dr. Larry P. GoodsonThe Syrian Civil War is shaping up to do something disastrous to the Middle East—something that has not occurred in modern history. A regional conflagration is coming; indeed, it may already be here. The meltdown currently underway in Iraq is only the first manifestation of the regional war—or perhaps region-wide violence—that... MORE

Russia’s Contribution as a Partner in the War on Terrorism
July 8, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines terrorism and counterterrorism from the Russian perspective so as to assess prospects for cooperation with Russia in fighting terror. It concludes that, regardless of the state of political relations between Russia and the United States at any given time, longer-term... MORE

Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus
June 26, 2014 — Author: Dr Robert Nalbandov View the Executive SummaryThis monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public... MORE

The Paracel Islands and U.S. Interests and Approaches in the South China Sea
June 24, 2014 — Author: LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) View the Executive SummaryThe Paracel Islands and South China Sea disputes require better understanding by U.S. policymakers in order to address the region’s challenges. To attain that needed understanding, legal aspects of customary and modern laws are explored in this monograph to analyze the differences... MORE

The Growing Complexity of Sino-Indian Ties
June 13, 2014 — Author: Dr Harsh V Pant View the Executive SummaryAccording to most political observers, the global political architecture is undergoing a transformation with power increasingly shifting from the West to the East. The two most populous nations on the earth, China and India, are on their way to becoming economic powerhouses and are shedding their... MORE

Islamism and Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina
May 23, 2014 — Author: Ms Leslie S Lebl View the Executive SummaryU.S. experts fear violence could once again break out in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and some even want the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to mount another military mission there. Yet few of these experts focus on the danger of gradually expanding Islamism. In Bosnia, it appears to have made... MORE

From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006
May 16, 2014 — Author: Dr Jean-Loup Samaan View the Executive SummaryOver the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. To understand this paradox, the monograph explores the mechanisms of deterrence in the... MORE

The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq
May 6, 2014 — Author: Dr Azeem Ibrahim View the Executive SummaryThe Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might... MORE

What Will Happen to Syria’s Christians?
May 5, 2014 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Syrian civil war is widely understood to have a strong sectarian component. In this conflict, Bashar Assad’s Alawite–dominated regime is seeking to crush an uprising led by majority Sunni Arabs. The Alawites are a branch of Shi’ite Islam and have been supported by Shi’ite allies including Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group... MORE

Russian Military Transformation – Goal In Sight?
May 5, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThe Russian Armed Forces have been undergoing major structural reform since 2008. Despite change at the most senior levels of leadership, the desired endstate for Russia's military is now clear; but this endstate is determined by a flawed political perception of the key threats... MORE

Cover for Russian Military Transformation - Goal In Sight?