Recent Publications

Colloquium Brief: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025
August 27, 2014 — Mr. R. Lincoln Hines Key Insights. Domestic, external, and technological drivers of China's military modernization are examined. Three plausible scenarios for the modernization of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) that result from these drivers are explored. Implications of these futures for regional dynamics, the international system,... MORE

Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence?
August 26, 2014 — Author: Dr Tracey GermanView the Executive Summary This monograph examines Russia’s policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest. It focuses on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has... MORE

Iran’s Emergence as a Cyber Power
August 20, 2014 — As international scrutiny remains focused on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program, a capability is developing in the shadows inside Iran that could pose an even greater threat to the United States. The 2010 National Security Strategy discusses Iran in the context of its nuclear program, support of terrorism, its influence in regional activities, and its internal problems. There was no mention of Iran’s cyber capability or of that ability to pose a threat to U.S. interests. This is understandable, considering Iran has not been a major concern in the cyber realm. Furthermore, Russia and China’s cyber activities have justifiably garnered a majority of attention and been widely reported in the media over the past decade. Iran’s cyber capabilities have been considered third-tier at best. That is rapidly changing. This report discusses the growing cyber capability of Iran and why it poses a new threat to U.S. national interests... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization
August 6, 2014 — Authors: Dr Andrew Monaghan, Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThe role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in regional politics and the significance of the organization for U.S. interests are widely misunderstood. The organization is emphatically not a military bloc, and yet engages in joint activities which resemble... MORE

Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond
July 21, 2014 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummaryRegime change during the Arab Spring allowed Islamist political forces that had long been marginalized to achieve political influence in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Morocco’s first government led by an Islamist party has been in power since January 2012. This trend caused widespread concern... MORE

European Missile Defense and Russia
July 17, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the history of missile defense and the current dialogue from a Russian perspective, in order to explain the root causes of Russian alarm. Specific recommendations for managing the Russia relationship in the context of missile defense are given. Important... MORE

Op-Ed: Syria and the Great Middle Eastern War
July 8, 2014 — Dr. Larry P. GoodsonThe Syrian Civil War is shaping up to do something disastrous to the Middle East—something that has not occurred in modern history. A regional conflagration is coming; indeed, it may already be here. The meltdown currently underway in Iraq is only the first manifestation of the regional war—or perhaps region-wide violence—that... MORE

Russia’s Contribution as a Partner in the War on Terrorism
July 8, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines terrorism and counterterrorism from the Russian perspective so as to assess prospects for cooperation with Russia in fighting terror. It concludes that, regardless of the state of political relations between Russia and the United States at any given time, longer-term... MORE

Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus
June 26, 2014 — Author: Dr Robert Nalbandov View the Executive SummaryThis monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public... MORE

The Paracel Islands and U.S. Interests and Approaches in the South China Sea
June 24, 2014 — Author: LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) View the Executive SummaryThe Paracel Islands and South China Sea disputes require better understanding by U.S. policymakers in order to address the region’s challenges. To attain that needed understanding, legal aspects of customary and modern laws are explored in this monograph to analyze the differences... MORE

The Growing Complexity of Sino-Indian Ties
June 13, 2014 — Author: Dr Harsh V Pant View the Executive SummaryAccording to most political observers, the global political architecture is undergoing a transformation with power increasingly shifting from the West to the East. The two most populous nations on the earth, China and India, are on their way to becoming economic powerhouses and are shedding their... MORE

Islamism and Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina
May 23, 2014 — Author: Ms Leslie S Lebl View the Executive SummaryU.S. experts fear violence could once again break out in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and some even want the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to mount another military mission there. Yet few of these experts focus on the danger of gradually expanding Islamism. In Bosnia, it appears to have made... MORE