Recent Publications

Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China’s Advance in Africa is Underestimated and Africa’s Potential Underappreciated
September 1, 2012 — Author: Mr David E Brown The explosive growth of China’s economic interests in Africa—bilateral trade rocketed from $1 billion in 1990 to $150 billion in 2011—may be the most important trend in the continent’s foreign relations since the end of the Cold War. In 2010, China surpassed the United States as Africa’s top trading partner; its quest to... MORE

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Against All Odds: Relations between NATO and the MENA Region
August 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Florence Gaub While NATO was created with a primary outlook to the East, its Southern rim was neglected strategically until the end of the Cold War. Since then, the Alliance has undertaken a number of efforts to build strategic relationships with the Middle East and North Africa, recognizing the region’s importance for Allied security... MORE

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Transnational Organized Crime, Terrorism, and Criminalized States in Latin America: An Emerging Tier-One National Security Priority
August 1, 2012 — Author: Mr Douglas Farah The emergence of new hybrid (state and nonstate) transnational criminal/terrorist franchises in Latin America operating under broad state protection now pose a tier-one security threat for the United States. Similar hybrid franchise models are developing in other parts of the world, which makes the understanding of these... MORE

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Arms Control and European Security
August 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank, COL Louis H Jordan Jr The following three papers comprise one of the panels from a conference on U.S.-Russia relations that SSI co-sponsored with the Carnegie Council at Pocantico, NY, from June 1-3, 2011: Carnegie Council's Program on “U.S. Global Engagement: A Two-Year Retrospective.” The papers offer three contrasting... MORE

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Breaking News Analysis: The Future of the U.S. Political and Military Relationship with Egypt
July 9, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Egyptian political system is currently undergoing significant change, although the outcome of this process remains subject to a great deal of uncertainty. There are numerous influential players involved in the struggle for political power, but the two that are of greatest interest at the present time are the Muslim... MORE

Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, and Military Perspectives
June 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank These three papers represent the first panel of papers from SSI’s annual Russia conference that took place in September 2011. They assess the nature of Russia's political system, economy, and armed forces and draw conclusions, even sharp and provocative ones, concerning the nature and trajectory of these institutions. The... MORE

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Colloquium Brief: Learning By Doing: The PLA Trains at Home and Abroad
May 15, 2012 — Recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy exercises and operations, such as the Gulf of Aden (GOA) anti-piracy deployment, point to an increasing interest in developing a presence in distant seas and expeditionary naval capabilities. The PLA’s ground force exercises, rather than aiming to intimidate others by demonstrating the ability to project power beyond China’s borders, are most relevant to operations within mainland China; transmilitary region exercises contribute to China's deterrence posture by demonstrating a proven ability to project power to repel an attack while People's Armed Police (PAP) exercises and operations reveal increased capabilities to counter terrorism and control civil unrest... MORE

Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America’s Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation
May 1, 2012 — Author: COL Lewis G Irwin Remarkably ambitious in its audacity and scope, NATO’s irregular warfare and nation-building mission in Afghanistan has struggled to meet its nonmilitary objectives by most tangible measures. Put directly, the Alliance and its partners have fallen short of achieving the results needed to create a stable, secure,... MORE

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Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba’athification Program for Iraq’s Future and the Arab Revolutions
May 1, 2012 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillThis monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba’athification and carefully evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While... MORE

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The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus
May 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh The United States is no longer the only global center of power as it was in the first years of post-Cold War era. Neither are there just two superpowers — the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics — that define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several... MORE

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Op-Ed: Zen and the Art of Social Selfishness
March 4, 2012 — COL Louis H. Jordan, Jr The German word “Gemuetlichkeit” loosely translated means “cozy sociability,” or in our terms, that soft warm place where all is good. The European Union (EU), when formalized after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc, was to be gemuetlichkeit. But today, Germany, as well as many other EU countries, is running out of patience... MORE

Delegitimizing Al-Qaeda: A Jihad-Realist Approach
March 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Paul Kamolnick Disrupting, dismantling, and ultimately defeating al-Qaeda based and inspired terrorism is a declared policy of the U.S. Government. Three key strategic objectives have been identified for accomplishing this: attacking al-Qaeda’s terror network, undermining radicalization and recruitment, and hardening homeland defense... MORE

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