Recent Publications - Tag Articles

Frustrating the Fait Accompli: How Rocket Artillery Changes the Taiwan Situation
February 11, 2026 — China is furious about the United States’ recently announced $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, and for good reason. Beyond simply comprising a significant assortment of military equipment, the package supports Taiwan’s developing asymmetric-warfare concept and effectively transforms Taiwan’s strike capabilities. Just as the rise of rocket artillery in Europe a few years ago challenged the assumed speed at which Russia could seize the Baltic states, the rocket and missile capabilities outlined in the new arms package fundamentally alter the calculus of a potential Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Specifically, the emerging capabilities, nested within an asymmetric-warfare concept, provide Taiwan the ability to increase survivability through dispersion, strike targets in China, and concentrate fires to frustrate nearly every step of an amphibious operation... MORE

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China’s September 2025 Military Parade: How PLA Ground Forces Are Adapting to Future Wars and Force Projection
September 5, 2025 — China’s military parades are often viewed as a form of deterrence by giving Xi Jinping an opportunity to showcase the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) advanced weapons systems to the world and bring like-minded authoritarian leaders from partner states together in a show of unity against the Western-led international liberal order. The extravagant events, however, also open a window into understanding Beijing’s expectation of how and where it will fight in the future. Despite the unveiling of several new weapons driven through Tiananmen Square during the 70-minute parade, most of them, like the YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missile and LY-1 shipborne laser air defense system, were designed to deter and defeat the United States and its allies in the air and maritime domains of the Indo-Pacific region. Yet, the first formations of vehicles to cross in front of Xi and his guests, those belonging to the PLA Army (PLAA), PLA Air Force Airborne Corps (PLAAFAC), and PLA Navy Marine Corps (PLANMC), represented something different: an acknowledgement that future wars will be global and force projection needs to be accompanied by land-based firepower and protection... MORE

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Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future Conflict
April 24, 2025 — As one of the three branches of China’s armed forces, the People’s Armed Police (PAP) (人民武装警察) operates alongside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) (人民解放军) and the militia (民兵) as a key instrument of Chinese Communist Party power. According to the Science of Military Strategy, a foundational textbook used to educate senior Chinese military officers, the People’s Armed Police is tasked with meeting the strategic requirements of “multi-functional integration, stability and rights maintenance” (多能一体，维稳维权)... MORE

Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future Conflict | Jake Rinaldi

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation
March 18, 2025 — The deployment of North Korean forces to Ukraine marks a critical inflection point in global security dynamics, challenging long-held assumptions about the limits of cooperation between authoritarian states. This development, unprecedented in its implications, reveals even absent formal alliances or ideological cohesion, the strategic realignment among authoritarian states has the potential to reshape the global order and future conflicts... MORE

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation
Jake Rinaldi

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather
February 20, 2025 — In 2024, the US Department of Defense promulgated the latest edition of its Arctic Strategy, highlighting the need to enhance domain awareness and operational readiness to safeguard US and allied interests in the Arctic region. The Arctic possesses vast resource potential, is geographically linked to the US homeland and allied territories, and is a strategic avenue for US force projection in the Indo-Pacific theater... MORE

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather | Jake Vartanian

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the Future Challenges for Hellscape
January 14, 2025 — In a future Taiwan contingency, the United States and its allies and partners are poised to leverage large-scale autonomous unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations to counter China’s anti-access/area denial strategy. This approach aims to mitigate... MORE

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the Future Challenges for Hellscape | Jake Rinaldi and Jake Vartanian

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific
January 8, 2025 — Applying the military instrument of power is essential to deterrence and assurance in the Indo-Pacific. This essay explores the underappreciated application of Landpower in this critical region and assesses the effects of a few activities that assure allies and partners and deter the People’s Republic of China. The discreet examples in this short article hopefully provide a better foundation for understanding military dynamics in the region and allow for better future assessments of integrated deterrence efforts... MORE

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific | Colonel Richard D. Butler and Jimmy Bell

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System
December 5, 2024 — The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned around the country, a prolonged war of attrition will require more than movement of forces from one side of the country to another... MORE

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System | Joshua M. Arostegui

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical Mineral Procurement
October 17, 2024 — Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed seven materials as critical in the short term because of their uses for magnets, batteries, and fuel cells: dysprosium, neodymium, gallium, graphite, terbium, iridium, and cobalt... MORE

PRC Strategic Adaptation in Africa
October 9, 2024 — The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s expanding security footprint in Africa, marked by increased military cooperation and infrastructure investments, poses a significant challenge to US strategic interests. As outlined in the Department of Defense’s annual report to Congress, China is using its diplomatic and multilateral platforms to reinforce defense influence established through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).1 The United States has begun to counter China’s policy maneuvers with competition in the economic space, through multilateral efforts like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI)... MORE

PRC Strategic Adaptation in Africa | Jake R. Rinaldi

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania
October 9, 2024 — The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a key strategic partner on the African continent.1 Commemorating 60 years of bilateral relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Tanzania, the exercise included antipiracy and counterterrorism training events that enabled the PLA to train in Tanzania’s complex terrain alongside elements of the Tanzanian People’s Defense Forces (TPDF)... MORE

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania | Jake Vartanian

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation
September 18, 2024 — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security cooperation. In recent months, US officials have increasingly called attention to the support that China is providing to Russia’s defense industry, which has helped Russia to... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation |
Brian G. Carlson