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Feb. 27, 2025

Assessing the Zeitenwende

Table of Contents

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Acknowledgments

Foreword

Summary

Executive Summary

Chapter 1 – Introduction: Assessing the Zeitenwende
John R. Deni and Jeffrey D. Rathke

Chapter 2 – Germany’s National Security Strategy: Is It Helping or Hurting the Zeitenwende?
Marina E. Henke

What Is Good Grand Strategy?

Criteria 1: Define Core Strategic Goals

Criteria 2: Identify Core Strategic Challenges

Criteria 3: Analyze Core Strategic Challenges

Criteria 4: Designing a Logic of Action

Criteria 5: Translating Strategic Ideas into Concrete Actions

Does Germany’s National Security Strategy Apply These Best Practices?

Germany’s Strategic Goals

Germany’s Strategic Challenges

Germany’s Policy Recommendations

What Now?

Chapter 3 – Washington’s Expectations, American Strategy, and Germany’s Role
John R. Deni

Introduction

Challenges Confronting the United States

The Role of Allies

Germany’s Role

The Zeitenwende’s Impact . . . and Its Promise

Conclusion

Chapter 4 – German Conventional Defense Capabilities and Capacity
Aylin MatlĂ©

Germany’s Conventional Defense Capabilities Since the Zeitenwende

Whether and How the Goals Have Been Addressed

Implications for the German-US Relationship

Recommendations: How to Move Forward

Chapter 5 – A Zeitenwende for Germany’s Defense Industry
Sophia Besch

German Defense Industry—Financial, Political, Regulatory, and Cultural Challenges

Two Steps Forward

. . . One Step Back

Multilateralizing the Zeitenwende

Stumbling Blocks Ahead

The Way Ahead

Chapter 6 – Zeitenwende Energy Policy
Loyle Campbell and Tim Bosch

Introduction: Germany’s Evolving Energy Security

Prewar Context of German Energy Policy

Reacting to External Shock: Primacy of Security of Supply

High Economic Costs of Managing the Energy Crisis

The Growing Link Between Energiewende and Energy Security

Remaining Challenges

Conclusion and Recommendations

Chapter 7 – The End of Ostpolitik?
Angela E Stent

German-Russian Relations Prior to February 2022

The Zeitenwende Scorecard—Economic and Energy Ties

Political Ties

The Russian Response

Support for Ukraine

Implications for the United States

Chapter 8 – The Institutional Dimension: NATO, the EU, and Multinational Cooperation
Jeffrey D. Rathke and Theresa Luetkefend

Introduction

Germany’s Zeitenwende in NATO

A Decade of Fitful Struggles to Increase Defense Spending

Germany’s Role in the New NATO Force Model

Brigade in Lithuania

Slowly Making Up for Decades-Long Underinvestment

New Initiatives to Achieve Multinational Critical Mass

Germany’s Zeitenwende in the EU

The EU Takes a Back Seat to Berlin’s National and NATO Efforts

The Sputtering Franco-German Engine

Conclusion

Chapter 9 – Zeitenwende: China, Germany, and the United States
May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Sharon de Cet

Changes in Germany’s China Policy Already Underway

China-Russia Relations in the German Eye

Two Firsts: Germany’s National Security Strategy and China Strategy

Trade

Ambivalent Political Signals

Security

German-US Relations: Transatlantic Challenges and Synergies

Outlook and Recommendations

About the Editors

About the Contributors

 
Thumbnail Photo Credit

David Cohen on Unsplash, Photo of white Greek-design architecture (Reichstag), https://unsplash.com/photos/photo-of-white-greek-design-architecture-R4VXMRFVcE4.