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Publications, Research & Commentary, Regional Issues, China Landpower Studies Center, European Security, INDOPACOM (Indo-Pacific Region), South & Latin America
Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024
— This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of...
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Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
December 10, 2024
— The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind. ...
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China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System
December 5, 2024
— The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned around the country, a prolonged war of attrition will require more than movement of forces from one side of the country to another...
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Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
December 5, 2024
— The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts...
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China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20
November 26, 2024
— From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Beyond the dominant role of Xi and China in each summit, the three distinct performances by Xi also provide important...
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Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
November 26, 2024
— While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side...
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Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean
November 12, 2024
— This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating within the region’s Chinese minority communities. It also examines the successes and challenges in coordination between law enforcement and other government entities in the Dutch Caribbean, and between the Dutch Caribbean and the European Netherlands,...
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Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay
November 7, 2024
— This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to have on the global logistics system, and its strategic implications in time of war with the United States. It argues that the project is illustrative of how the PRC...
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Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024
— Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ...
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Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
October 28, 2024
— This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to organized crime, corruption and its role as a transit point for drugs and weapons. The country also...
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Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China
October 18, 2024
— From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in Beijing. The meeting, the most significant event of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) global defense...
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China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical Mineral Procurement
October 17, 2024
— Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed seven materials as critical in the short term because of their uses for magnets, batteries, and fuel cells: dysprosium, neodymium, gallium, graphite, terbium, iridium, and cobalt...
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