Recent Publications

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023 — R. Evan EllisAs Mexico looks to national elections in June 2024, the expanding engagement that the country is backing into with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have profound implications for the country’s future, as well as the United States and the rest of the region.BackgroundMexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
August 2, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Introduction In his March 2023 annual posture statement to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, head of U.S. Northern Command General Glen VanHerck referred to the substantial commercial and other presence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Bahamas as “efforts to gain a foothold only 50 miles from the U.S. East... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
R. Evan Ellis
China, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis In June 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in a cash-strapped Cuba in exchange for access to an electronic intelligence collection (ELINT) facility, and negotiated an agreement to train Chinese soldiers on the north side of the island. These developments have been met with... MORE

NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 — John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his country would not receive a firm timetable for membership in NATO stole the show at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius last week... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
July 14, 2023 — John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius Summit concluded, NATO observers can take a breath — and take a step back to see what was really accomplished at the meeting,... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
John R. Deni

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
July 10, 2023 — Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less... MORE

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
July 10, 2023 — Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation
July 6, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis The Caribbean faces growing security challenges, ranging from geopolitical tensions to armed violence and the gang epidemic, exacerbated by drug trafficking and competition for drug routes. The region has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, mass migration, and money laundering. Caribbean countries require integrated solutions... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation, R. Evan Ellis, SSI Worldwide

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
June 20, 2023 — R. Evan EllisDuring World War II, Brazil contributed to the security of allied trans-Atlantic shipping routes and sent a division-sized expeditionary force to Italy to help liberate Europe from Hitler and Mussolini’s murderous dictatorships. In 1985, Brazilians rallied around Tancredo Neves and José Sarney to end undemocratic military rule... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Jun 20, 2023 | China, R. Evan Ellis, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
June 9, 2023 — R. Evan EllisIn Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western investors as they pursue a fundamentally anti-democratic, anti-market, anti-U.S. course. It is time for Washington to recognize that... MORE

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
R. Evan Ellis

The Trouble with China’s Global Civilization Initiative (on The Diplomat)
June 1, 2023 — R. Evan EllisHistory is marked by the recurring tragedy of publics rallying around leaders with attractive-sounding rhetoric, from new constitutions to government-led development and social justice, to prosperity through privatization. Whether on the right or the left, the most consistent outcome is to empower and benefit the elites selling the... MORE

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
May 27, 2023 — R. Evan EllisWith roughly a year to go before Panama’s next general election scheduled for May 2024, Panamanians are broadly frustrated with the country’s current conditions. During a weeklong visit last month, government officials, academics and others I spoke with expressed concerns over insecurity, the economy, corruption and the stalled... MORE

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
R. Evan Ellis