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NEWS | June 12, 2026

SSI Live 125 – Europe’s Role in a Taiwan Crisis

Brennan Deveraux and Dr. John Deni

 

In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Dr. John Deni on his ongoing research concerning Europe’s potential involvement in a war in the Pacific. The conversation explores the challenges of coalition management and the unique contributions the United States could request from its European allies.

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John Deni
Hello and welcome to SSI Live. You’ve long known the Strategic Studies Institute, or SSI, at the US Army War College, as the go-to location for issues related to national security and military strategy, with an emphasis on geostrategic analysis. SSI conducts strategic research and analysis to support the US Army War College curricula; assist and inform Army, DoD, and US government leadership; and serve as a bridge to the wider strategic community. Now, we are bringing you access to SSI analyses, scholars, and guests, through this, the SSI Live podcast series. Thanks for joining us.
           
Brennan Deveraux   
Welcome back to SSI Live. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those are the guests and not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army War College, or any other agency of the US government. I’m Brennan Deveraux, your guest host for the last time. And it’s only fitting that for my final guest, I welcome back the show’s regular host, Dr. John Deni, who just returned from his sabbatical.
Dr. Deni is a research professor of security studies at the US Army War College’s newly established Strategic Research and Assessments Department, formerly the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). He is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a senior fellow at the NATO Defense College, and an adjunct professorial lecturer at American University School of International Service. Previously, John worked for eight years as a political advisor to senior US military commanders in Europe. He is a political scientist who received his doctorate from George Washington University.
For this conversation, will be exploring John’s ongoing work examining Europe’s potential role in a US-China conflict. John, thanks for coming on.
           
Deni   
Brennan, my pleasure and thanks for hosting.
           
Deveraux       
Well, thanks for letting me host for this last year. It’s actually been a really cool experience, I had the opportunity to talk to a lot of people. And I appreciate the trust you put in me to do that. So, we’ll go ahead and jump right in. So I had the chance to host for a year because you took a sabbatical. Can you tell us a little bit about why you decided to take a sabbatical, and a little bit of what you worked on while you were off?
           
Deni   
Yeah, certainly Brennan. At the US Army War College, as at many, perhaps most, academic institutions, faculty have the ability to request or apply for a sabbatical, which is kind of an intellectual break, if you will, from the day-to-day duties of being a faculty member at whatever institution you’re a part of. And it gives you a chance to, gives a faculty member a chance to sink his or her teeth into a, typically into a larger research project that could unfold.
Let’s say the research could unfold over a period of many months. In contrast to the effort it takes to write a journal article, for example, or an op-ed, or a blog entry, which can typically be done in a much shorter time frame. To write, for example, a book, you usually need months, if not years, and that can be difficult to do for an academic with a standard teaching load.
And so here at the US Army War College, after, I think the regulation states six years of service, a faculty member can apply for.
           
Deveraux       
And real quick, it’s not just writing the book, not something you can just do on nights and weekends. When you start talking about in your line of work, you’re doing intense research. You’re traveling. There’s a lot more to it than just some listeners might think of finding the time. It’s more than just finding the time.

Deni   
You know? Yeah, that is true. The time, though, I must tell you, is kind of a, it’s the focal point. I mean, there’s certainly more to it than just researching and writing. You’re right. There’s, there’s the, a part of the research is the travel, right, necessary to get the information from archives or from interviews or from exercises that you need to write a book in the national security field.
Right. But you know, from the typical faculty members perspective, the issue really is one mostly of time. Having concentrated time to write a book. That is a rare thing in our world. And so, the opportunity to do that came, and I chose to pursue it. Of course, you’ve got to pitch a project. It’s not a right. But you’ve got the potential to have a sabbatical.
You apply for it. And so, I put together an application on this project that we’re going to discuss. And, and I was lucky enough to have the War college bless it. And so I had this academic year, ten months to work on this book project and attempt to complete it in that space of time.
           
Deveraux       
That’s awesome. That’s a really neat opportunity. I’m excited to see what came out of it. And I did get a chance to see a little teaser article that that’s out and about. But if you could tell us a little bit about your pitch from what you thought the project was going to be, and then kind of how it’s developed over these last ten months?
           
Deni   
Sure. Well, the project is about Europe’s role in a US China flight, probably over Taiwan, but I include other scenarios as well. And the reason why I chose to tackle that topic was that I saw in the literature on US-Chinese competition, strategic competition, or conflict over Taiwan, most experts in our country, most academics in North America, tend to pay very little attention to allies.
If they do, they address the Japanese, the Australians, allies in the Indo-Pacific. And of course, that makes sense, right? If they devote any attention at all to Europe, and Europe is largely disregarded, if they devote any attention to it, they sort of wave it off in nearly the same breath, because the argument is typically that Europe doesn’t have the capacity or the capability to do much of anything in the Indo-Pacific.
So why would we look at them to help us in what could be a big fight against the Chinese? Right. I just thought that was frankly inaccurate, and it underestimated the scale of the conflict that could be coming. And it’s breadth, right? I think of this as a potential conflict between the US and China as far more than just a military fight.
If something like this happened, it’s very likely to spread into the economic domain. It may even begin their effect. It will include the diplomatic realm, obviously, the information space, cyber, space, etc. multiple domains. Well beyond the question of whether or not Europe can deploy an aircraft carrier into the Indo-Pacific. So that’s why I chose to do it. And I’ve sort of tried to frame the project in, again, the sort of broad context of what could a potential conflict with China look like.
And then what kind of help would the US need in these various domains? And that’s really that’s probably the second half of the book. The first half of the book is more about how would we bring allies on board in this effort. How has the US in the past built coalitions to engage in diplomatic or military initiatives near and far from home?
And so those that’s really the broad framing and then the two specific halves of the book, if you will. And at the very end, I take those two halves of the book and try to kind of marry them. Okay. If this is what we need from Europe for this kind of a scenario, what do we pull from our toolkit of coalition building and coalition maintenance to make it happen so that we can successfully gain the resistance?
           
Deveraux       
It’s really neat, and I would assume based on especially the comment about the maintenance, but based on your findings, a lot of the recommendations are going to be pre-conflict. What are we doing to try to build the capabilities, build the partnership, and maybe just help others understand that the problem isn’t isolated necessarily just to the Pacific?
           
Deni   
Yeah, a lot of it is pre-conflict Brennan. And I think that’s where one of the major recommendations is that we should not, in the US, presume simultaneity. Okay. Simultaneity is this concept very popular right now in political science and national security circles regarding the potential for a simultaneous war between the US and China and between, let’s say, the West, broadly speaking, anchored by the US and Russia.
Okay. And the thinking, the sort of conventional wisdom right now is that simultaneity is likely to occur. But if it doesn’t, we need to plan for that, in any case. It’s a worst-case scenario, right? We should plan for it. I’m not saying we shouldn’t, but what it has led to in some cases is from a policymaking perspective, is an effort on the part of some and policymaking circles to essentially tell the Europeans, “Thanks, but no thanks. Even at this pre conflict stage, we don’t want your assistance in the Indo-Pacific. We want you to focus on the Russia challenge. We’ll worry about China. You stay focused on the Russia challenge in Europe.” And we’ve seen this emerge in open-source reporting. In fact, that was a major impetus to the project. When I began to see there was a news article, I want to say last spring or early summer regarding comments made by senior Department of Defense or Department of War officials to the United Kingdom regarding a deployment of an aircraft carrier, a British carrier group, to the Indo-Pacific.
And the opinion was expressed by the Americans at this meeting that, you know, we ought to consider bringing that carrier back and instead focusing on the Russians. As I said, I think simultaneity needs to be something that the Pentagon plans for. Right. Again, it’s worst-case scenario planning. That’s what the Pentagon needs to do. But to assume that all scenarios short of that are somehow impossible, that we shouldn’t plan for those as well, doesn’t make sense to me.
Okay, so it seems to me that it would be far more sensible for us to engage Europeans now in this topic. What would happen if the Chinese engaged in a blockade of Taiwan? What would happen if the Chinese began to show signs of a potential assault of Taiwan? How would they react if the US and China got into a shooting war?
These are conversations we need to be having with our closest allies now, so that we can call on them when the time is needed. The research that I’ve done on this project regarding coalition building, and here, I’m really standing on the shoulders of others. Right? It’s almost a meta analysis. So I do sort of a literature review, if you will, of what political scientists and historians have said about how we Americans build coalitions.
And it may come as a surprise to many, you know, the countries that join us in these endeavors, whether it’s the Korean War or the Vietnam War or very recently, Afghanistan, Iraq, or now Iran. Usually when countries join us in these efforts, our interests don’t perfectly align with theirs. In fact, the coalition that’s built is usually done through really skilled, focused and time intensive diplomacy.
And that’s a central argument of the book right now that that, that that real difficult spade work needs to occur now, not after the bullets start flying.
           
Deveraux       
And I would be curious, and I would assume that when we start talking about building the potential contributions from these countries, the further we’re aligning interests, probably the more disparity we have in level of commitment they might bring to the fight. Right? So, it’s not necessarily everyone is going to send those aircraft carriers, but maybe a small company of electromagnetic specialists.
Right. You know, what is a contribution a country can do while still saving face for what could be an immediate problem? Because I thought it was really interesting you talked about how the US says, “hey, maybe keep focusing on the Russia problem.” But I can only imagine Poland or Lithuania is also thinking, “you know what, I have to keep at least an eye on this Russia problem.”
           
Deni   
Yeah, that’s exactly right. I mean, the fact of the matter is, you know, the NATO alliance is now 32 member states. It is very difficult to get all 32 on the same page regarding perceptions. And I don’t make any claim in the book that or stake any expectation to the notion that the US will be able to convince, as you suggested, Poland to send elements of its navy, its air force to the Indo-Pacific.
Right? I mean, these countries in Europe are going to have different threat perception, and we cannot know what their threat perceptions might be at some future date. However, we can make some good, educated guesses about the countries that would be most likely to be willing or potentially willing to join us in some kind of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
And I go through this exercise in the book of sort of examining in each of these different capability areas that the allies have, whether it’s military capabilities. And there I kind of do a deep dive on what would we be the air domain or the land domain, etc. I look at their economic capabilities as well in terms of finance or industry, and then their diplomatic skill sets.
Right. And the diplomatic strengths around the world or their information strengths. You know, you might think of the UK with the BBC as having a broad reach in terms of information operations, potentially. The point is there needs to be diplomatic work done to figure out what does this constellation of allies and potential capabilities look like, depending upon or corresponding to the kind of scenario we might face.
And so, it really is a detailed effort, and this is what I undertake in the book, to try to map all of this. Right. If there’s a certain kind of scenario that we’re involved in with China over Taiwan, let’s say a blockade, well, they’re going to be certain kinds of things we might need assistance with. We might not need the full gamut of capabilities that Europeans have, you know, in the cupboard.
We want to instead make very targeted requests. And that’s where historically we’ve seen success when they part of American administrations going back decades, as I mentioned, the Korean War is actually one of the one of the case studies in my book in which I explain how Americans have built coalitions. And the result of that is a list of five best practices, if you will, for coalition construction, and then a separate list of five best practices for coalition maintenance.
           
Deveraux       
That’s really interesting you use the Korean War as a case study. I concede, yes, it definitely was, you know, a demonstration of coalition building. But it’s also, it rhymes a little bit with the modern problem you’re looking at where the US very openly was still concerned about then the Soviet Union. But the, you know, the European problem.
           
Deni   
Yeah, exactly. Right. And this is one of the most interesting parts of the analysis of this, what I call a literature review. But that sounds frankly kind of boring. But it’s really, it’s a look back through these case studies and how the Americans essentially succeeded in getting countries that you would think wouldn’t have a dog in some of these fights.
Right. The Korean War being a very good example of this. Right. Nonetheless, Americans convincing even European powers that this was vital for them to expend blood and treasure in a conflict in some initiative that we were leading halfway around the world. And so, there’s a yeah, there’s a strong body of evidence indicating that we’ve got a pretty good track record of this when we make the effort.
Right. And that is the key is diplomatic spade work, done in advance, and by the experts. That’s what we need to see happen here.
           
Deveraux       
Yeah. And the “in advance” I think is key. I’m actually really curious as we talk about challenging diplomatic efforts, especially in advance, a lot of the narrative that I’ve seen for why it could be potentially dangerous for European assets to pull out is because it presents Russia and opportunity. If Russia is an opportunist to say, okay, if there was a time to try to capitalize, now is the time.
Capabilities are leaving the West. The US focus is elsewhere. I’d be curious, and maybe you don’t address it in the book, but I’d be curious on thoughts on engaging diplomatically early on with Russia, similarly to with allies, to say, you know, hey, what does a conflict with China between the United States and China mean to Russia?
           
Deni   
I don’t spend too much time in the book addressing the question of how the US would attempt to sideline the Russians in any US-China conflict, it’s more focused on how do we build the coalition of our friends, frankly. Nonetheless, what you’ve described is absolutely critical, right? I think we would expect and we would hope and expect a future administration and its European allies to try to deter the Russians from doing anything to assist the Chinese, similar in the way that we are now seeing the US and its European allies trying to deter China from assisting Russia in its war in Ukraine with, as we know, limited success.
But I want to get out one of the other topics that you raised in that that last question, and that is don’t we need if there is a conflict between the US and China and the Americans begin pulling out even more capability from Europe in order to deal with the Chinese challenge, wouldn’t we expect the Europeans to be timid about devoting too much of their own capacity and capabilities in Europe in order to maintain deterrence with the Russians, or, worst case scenario, push back against Russian adventurism while the US is engaged against China.
I think there’s something to that clearly. In the analysis in the book, you know, when I take a look at, for example, the military capabilities that Europeans might have to offer, tactical air and land power is one of those that I address in the book specifically, noting or concluding, that this is not an area where the US should expect to find European assistance forthcoming.
It’s not an area we should be asking for their help for two reasons. One, I think tactical air and tactical land power. For the most part. There may be some exceptions, but for the most part, less useful in an Indo-Pacific conflict with China over Taiwan, but more importantly, far more useful in a European effort to defend and against and push back and kind of Russian adventurism.
So, I totally agree with you that we need to be very careful about what we would ask the Europeans for, given the potential for a Russian challenge.
           
Deveraux       
No, that makes sense. And to your point, they’re very different types of conflict where we’re quick to say war, but a war in the Pacific and a war in Europe, probably very different capabilities needed, especially early on, to really set the conditions for that conflict.
           
Deni   
And you’re seeing that that analysis coming out now publicly in the form of some of the press releases. Just in the last week over Americans previewing for their NATO allies what’s to come here in in just a few weeks and early June, regarding what the US may or may not include in the American contribution to the NATO force model.
Right. And there have been press reports about the US holding back, specifically strategic air power, strategic airlift, and some naval assets for planning purposes against the Russians that would instead be needed over in the Indo-Pacific. And so the point is, the Americans are appear to be going through the hard work of analyzing what do we really need to potentially pull out of Europe or potentially not offer to Europe if there’s a conflict in the European theater while we keep our eye on China?
So I think that that hard analysis work continues to occur.
           
Deveraux       
Yeah, I think we see it in some modernization efforts as well in the force looking at how we’re thinking about what that next war could be and then potentially retooling what makes up the force. Not an overhaul by any means, but we’re definitely seeing some, some major shifts. So, the book, you’re back, I got the email today said, “hey, I’m back, team, let’s let me get back in the fight.”
Is the book complete? We’re you able to get the draft done in that ten-month period?
           
Deni   
To my chagrin, Brennan, no, I was not. It’s been quite an effort, frankly. I have written as of, I think, the end of last week, close to 70,000 words. So over ten months, that’s not a bad rate of writing and research. And, you know, that’s when you think about that. Divide that by ten months. It’s almost one article every month.
So that’s I feel good about what I have produced. But yeah, I think I’m not quite done. I’m probably at about the 80 or 90% mark. I had when I was pitching this project that publishers. I told them I would be complete with it in the summer of 2026. And I think I’m still on target for that.
But yeah, the book will continue to unfold here as I return to normal duties after this ten-month sabbatical ended just yesterday.
           
Deveraux       
Well, I hope to see that soon. Do you have a publisher locked in?
           
Deni   
I am in conversations with publishers now, and I’m not yet prepared to say where it will land, but I’m confident it will be published. That’s the good news. And yeah, we’ll have to TBD (to be determined) that’ll be announced later, I believe.
           
Deveraux       
Okay. That’s fair. And then timeline obviously will be TBD as well.
           
Deni   
Yeah. Although, you know, having gone through this now a couple of times, I expect it will probably be out early 2027. My, my, I’ve been really making a concerted effort to, with the publishers to ensure that they can meet that timeline, given what we know about what Chinese leadership has told the military regarding potential conflicts over Taiwan, and so that the timing of the book is very important.
I wanted to come out, of course, before there’s any kind of conflict or crisis.
           
Deveraux       
Yeah, you’ll get a lot more readers pre the milestone of 2027 than you will post. Right. But we can get a quick glimpse. I did see you guys posted an article. You and your intern. Can you talk a little bit about some of the things you decided to share in the article? Obviously not, you know, the book’s analysis, but a couple of the highlights.
           
Deni   
Yeah, I can tell you, you know, I’ve had the pleasure over the past couple of years of working with a number of very talented undergraduate research interns. Last summer, one of those students from the College of William and Mary Alexander Lekarev, helped me to sort of kick this project off, doing some preliminary research. And then over the course of the fall, the two of us continued to massage this preliminary product that we created that’s kind of an elevator pitch or a, you know, a very short version of the book in which we lay out the arguments that I’ve been talking to you about, that in fact, a fight with China is going to be if there is one, it’s going to be massive that we will need. We Americans will need all the help we can get, not simply from allies in the Indo-Pacific, but from allies around the world.
And the Europeans are, in fact, in a place we should be looking. And we suggest in the in, in this, in this piece at Breaking Defense that the Europeans could contribute in terms of military forces. We specifically look at the role that attack submarines might play the merchant marine forces that Europe has, as well as mine hunting and mine clearing.
And then, of course, we look at the economic realm as well, especially European defense industry, but also the ability of Europeans to help us finance our debt. We’re likely to have to increase defense spending significantly in the event of a major war with China, and that will require some kind of debt financing. And we could use Europeans help there.
We also look at European information operations capabilities. I mentioned the BBC earlier. But the French through France 24 and the Germans through Deutsche Bela also have worldwide information presence and could be very helpful in terms of setting the record straight and counteracting or pushing back against Chinese and or Russian disinformation. And then, of course, we look at the role that the EU might play, especially in the economic realm, but also in the diplomatic realm, when it comes to leveraging the collective power that Europe has also.
           
Deveraux       
That’s really good. One of the things I love to think about as a planner, when I go and I start getting a little more tactical and drawing my arrows on maps and, you know, blue boxes here and there is that the enemy always gets a vote. And I’d be curious if you thought about and I know it’s not necessarily the root of your analysis, but if you thought about China’s efforts or thoughts on how the America could build a coalition.
I know when we started talking about missile deployments into Asia, China was very quick to do its best to kind of counter the Western narrative to deter these potential coalitions. So I’d be curious if you took China into account at all, as they extend off into Europe to see if they can’t kind of keep the West limited in what they bring to power?
           
Deni   
Yeah, definitely, Brennan. That’s a great question. I devote a lot of attention, actually, to the role that China will play in trying to spoil any American coalition building effort. Of course, the first and most obvious one is Chinese efforts in the UN to thwart any kind of United Nations Security Council effort. Right. And this is, this could potentially be critical.
One of the five variables I mentioned earlier, there were five variables very, very important for coalition building, is legitimacy and the greatest source of legitimacy for international initiatives, whether they’re in the military realm, diplomatic or economic, whatever, is the UN. At least in European eyes and largely in the eyes of many countries around the world. The Chinese, of course, hold a veto there until we can expect the UN Security Council to do probably nothing right to authorize no military action.
But the Chinese also hold some economic leverage over the Europeans. Right. In terms of the market access that that the Europeans have in China. And we should expect the Chinese to use that to try to dissuade Europeans from doing anything vis a vis China. But, you know, my sense is we made much we in the US made much the same argument regarding Europeans and Russia prior to 2014 and 2022, the dates of the two separate Russian invasions of Ukraine, in which we argued, “oh, well, the Russian control over Europe’s energy means Europe is not going to be a player.”
And then we see what happened, right? Who could have guessed in 2013 that Europeans would be able and willing to cut themselves off for the most part of Russian gas and oil? They’re not. They’re completely. But for the most part, that’s happened. Nobody foresaw that. Right. And so we can’t really stake an accurate claim of analysis with any with 100% certainty that Europe will be constrained by these Chinese efforts.
I have no doubt China will try, but we don’t yet know the circumstances of that future crisis or conflict. And so we can’t rule out the fact that Europeans may indeed be willing to join us in some capacity.
           
Deveraux       
No, I think that’s really good. But it’s also important. And I think you hit on a head that it’s an effort and it’s a battle. But China is going to be in that conversation. And they if they want to win whatever their objectives are as well they should. Right. And America gains power from these big alliances where China doesn’t necessarily have that.
So I just think that’s an interesting dynamic to think about. When we think about, it’s not just us convincing Poland to send us something. It’s also there, you know, there’s a bug in their ear that’s not just Russia’s on your doorstep. It’s China whispering Russia’s on your doorstep and it’s China maybe whispering to someone else. “Oh, I would hate it if the supply of X slowed to your region” or something like that.
It just changes the dynamic of this, you know, people-to-people conversation as you talk about, you know, a world leader talking to another world leader, not only is that world leader having to look at his domestic population, but he has some other external powers kind of weighing on him. I’m thinking like a gangster movie, right? “I sure hate it if your shop would get damaged, but you know, I’m here to offer some protection in case it doesn’t.” It’s just an interesting dynamic of the conversation.
           
Deni   
Yeah, Brennan, you’re exactly right. This is one of the, it’s kind of a double-edged sword, actually. You know, the Chinese are far more integrated into the world economy today than the Russians were prior to their invasion of Ukraine. Right. China is the top trading partner for over 100 countries around the world. And so we should expect that they’re going to realize some power from those kind of economic ties.
That kind of in some cases is an economic dependency, right? But at the same time, that opens up avenues of leverage, that embeddedness of the Chinese in the global economy opens up opportunities to deter and dissuade the Chinese from crisis or conflict. And so, I see it really as a double-edged sword.
           
Deveraux       
No, that’s a good point. I would love to share with you. And I’d be curious. And I’ve said it to a couple, a couple of the guests as we’ve kind of foreshadowed upcoming project. But you’re tracking here at the War College we’ve been working on a future China War book as well, with a very different lens, focusing on the China lens.
But the European chapter ended up turning out really well by Daryl Driver and Joel Hilson. It’s called “Excluded from the Equation: How China can Keep Europe out of the [War]. I’d be very curious to kind of see, you know, you’re two big analyzes kind of clash there to see where there’s overlap. Kind of where you guys talked about the same thing, some of the same challenges. Or even just looked at the problem completely different. And I’d have no issues sending you over their chapter. It’s in copy-edit right now. It’ll be published hopefully later this year. But really contrasts exactly what you’re talking about, which is the US has got to get Europe in there. And Daryl Driver and Joel Hilson are like, here’s exactly how China can keep Europe from joining the fight.
So I think it’s just your spot on that it’s a, it’s an important conversation, and it’s one we need to have before there’s a conflict. And I’m glad that it’s being had. I’m glad it’s being had in numerous different ways. I think it’ll be a really good conversation. Having spent a lot of time on that project, I’m looking forward to seeing your book when it comes out.
           
Deni   
Well, Brennan, I’m hoping to actually cite that work. I think my…
           
Deveraux       
Which I would be all for.
           
Deni   
I’m sure you would. I’m very aware of the expertise of Daryl and Joel. They’re great colleagues and fellow NATO geeks, as I am. And so, yeah, I was hoping to rope their work into my own analysis. Two more of the shoulders that I hope to stand on in this. And I’m aware, of course, of your work on that, that broader project.
           
Deveraux       
Which I think is going to be really good and I definitely will share it with you. And then I said, I’m going to read yours as soon as it comes out to see kind of how we looked at the problem differently, because I know we both talked about this when you were beginning your sabbatical.
And I’m actually going to shift us over. I said at the beginning, this was going to be my last session as the guest host. Unless you need me. I’m still in the wings and I’m not going far. But do you want to talk about the future of SSI live? I know if those listeners haven’t heard yet, we have transitioned. Our organization is now SRAD, not SSI.
I don’t know if you’re changing the name. This one’s still going to launch as SSI Live. And then I know you have to finish that book, but are you going to be able to have time to bring in some guests and kind of jump back in where you were before you took your sabbatical?
           
Deni   
Yeah. Brennan, I’ll tell you, that’s that is, or was certainly my hope I have been. First, I want to say I’ve been grateful that you have taken the reins here at SSI Live. Over the last ten months, I have been an avid listener in between my own writing and research, and so they’ve been a great series of Brennan Deveraux led podcasts.
So I’ve been grateful for your efforts. Thank you. It’s been really fantastic to hear those. Where SSI live goes from here is really unclear to me. As you mentioned, as our listeners may know, we are undergoing some change here at the US Army War College. And so, it, you know, it may not. I’m not sure what the future holds for SSI Live.
Frankly, I will say, you know, when I started this podcast for SSI, gosh, over ten years now, I want to say 2013, 2014, somewhere in there, this was the only US Army War College podcast. But as you know very well, now there are 3 or 4 others that have joined in the effort to examine the kind of work that goes on at the War College to get our research out there, to sort of leverage the expertise of our faculty and our students.
And so, you know, SSI Live kind of exists in a different world now than when it first started. So I would ask listeners to have some patience as we figure out the way ahead. But, you know, speaking of the way ahead, Brennan, I don’t know if listeners have yet heard about your way ahead. You are moving on to, to, I think, bigger and better things after this stint at SSI? Where are you headed next?
           
Deveraux       
Yeah, I would say “different” things. This has been my favorite assignment in the Army so far and I’ve been in for 17 years. So that’s saying something. But yeah, so I was lucky enough to be selected for a fellowship program through the Army called the Goodpastor Fellowship, or ASP3 (Advanced Strategic Planning and Policy Program). I am going to go get my PhD in history from your alma mater, the George Washington University.
So I’m taking off here for a summer course at Fort Leavenworth in a couple of days. Probably by the time this publishes, I’ll be on a plane. And then in the fall, I’m going to start diving into some early Cold War history and see what I can uncover to help us look at modern problems using some historical insights.
           
Deni   
Brennan it sounds fantastic. I can think of no better candidate to take on that challenge. You have really been a great asset for SSI in the US Army War College. I am sad to see you go, but if you’re going to go on anywhere from SSI, it is great to know that you are going to be continuing to build your own knowledge and build the body of knowledge that is the political science and history of the national security enterprise.
So thank you for all your efforts here, and I look forward to seeing your dissertation when published as a book eventually.
           
Deveraux       
Yeah, that one might be a little bit slower than the one you did on your sabbatical. It’s a process, they say, right. Well, John, I’m going to officially hand you back over the reins for SSI Live. I know you’re going to work through, as you said, the process. But if you’ll allow me, I’ll still close out this episode as my final go.
So, listeners, for more of those podcasts that John just mentioned, as we’ve added a few more channels, check out Decisive Point, Conversations on Strategy, CLSC (China Landpower Studies Center) Dialogues, and A Better Peace.

Deni
You can now find SSI Live on TuneIn radio and on popular podcast directories like Stitcher—and at the iTunes Store. If you have any comments on our podcast, thoughts on what you’d like to see addressed, or a response to something you heard here at SSI Live, please go to our website. That’s SSI.armywarcollege.edu. Find me, John Deni, in the staff directory, and send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you. For the SSI Live podcast series, I’m John Deni. Thanks for listening.  
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If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of "Minor Conflict" ...

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Security Implications of the China-Russia-North Korea Triangle

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SRAD | Nov. 13, 2025

China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global Footprint

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SSI Live 118 – The China Strategic Competition Seminar

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SRAD | Nov. 7, 2025

Forecasting the PRC’s Next Global Initiative

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The PLA’s Progress toward World-Class Ground Force Capabilities

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Preparing for PRC Military Actions in Latin America in the Context of a ...

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Peru’s Complex Security Challenges and the Government Response

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Global Public Security with Chinese Characteristics

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SRAD | Sept. 30, 2025

SSI Live 117 – China-Russia Relations and the Central Asian States

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SRAD | Sept. 26, 2025

Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Op...

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SRAD | Sept. 16, 2025

Parameters | Autumn 2025

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SRAD | Sept. 5, 2025

China’s September 2025 Military Parade: How PLA Ground Forces Are Adapt...

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SRAD | Sept. 3, 2025

More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Paci...

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SRAD | Aug. 26, 2025

Loyal Paraguay: The Peña Government’s Strategic Choice to Stay with Taiwan

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SRAD | Aug. 25, 2025

From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Spac...

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The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe

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SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under th...

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SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia

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SRAD | Aug. 6, 2025

Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twe...

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SRAD | July 22, 2025

More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Paci...

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SRAD | July 22, 2025

Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

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SRAD | July 15, 2025

Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies in...

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SRAD | July 9, 2025

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

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SRAD | June 18, 2025

Parameters | Summer 2025

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SRAD | June 3, 2025

Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals

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SRAD | May 20, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter II

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SRAD | May 8, 2025

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China

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SRAD | May 8, 2025

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas

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SRAD | April 29, 2025

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response

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SRAD | April 24, 2025

Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future...

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SRAD | April 22, 2025

Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United ...

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SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia's the Enemy

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SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence

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SRAD | April 21, 2025

Does NATO Still Matter?

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SRAD | April 15, 2025

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry

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SRAD | April 15, 2025

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain

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SRAD | April 14, 2025

LTG Matthew McFarlane: Commanding General of America's First Corps

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SRAD | April 11, 2025

How Chinese Leaders Conceptualize Protracted War

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SRAD | March 24, 2025

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand?

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SRAD | March 20, 2025

Parameters | Spring 2025

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North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation

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SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the...

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SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America

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SRAD | Feb. 20, 2025

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme ...

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SRAD | Feb. 11, 2025

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response

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SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter I

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SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA

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SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of...

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SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the ...

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SRAD | Jan. 8, 2025

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific

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SRAD | Jan. 6, 2025

“Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War”

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SRAD | Jan. 2, 2025

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable R...

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SRAD | Dec. 27, 2024

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come

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SRAD | Dec. 24, 2024

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC

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SRAD | Dec. 19, 2024

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base...

In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in

SRAD | Dec. 18, 2024

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah A...

This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the

SRAD | Dec. 17, 2024

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty ...

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SRAD | Dec. 10, 2024

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?

The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow

SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Res...

The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned

SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine

SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20

From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in

SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation

While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend

SRAD | Nov. 21, 2024

Parameters | Winter 2024–25

Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment.

SRAD | Nov. 14, 2024

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-...

The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its

SRAD | Nov. 12, 2024

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean

This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating

SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay

This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to

SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

“China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strat...

Dr. R. Evan Ellis discusses his recent article written for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs titled, “China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response.”  This illuminating discussion covers what China is doing

SRAD | Nov. 6, 2024

Venezuela: The Path Forward

Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez

SRAD | Oct. 28, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to

SRAD | Oct. 18, 2024

Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China

From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in

SRAD | Oct. 17, 2024

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical...

Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed

SRAD | Oct. 15, 2024

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security an...

Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners.

SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

PRC Strategic Adaptation in Africa

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s expanding security footprint in Africa, marked by increased military cooperation and infrastructure investments, poses a significant challenge to US strategic interests. As outlined in the Department of

SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania

The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a


SRAD | Sept. 24, 2024

“A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations...

In episode 18 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui interviews prominent China expert Dennis Blasko on his analysis of PLA Army and Boader Defense Unit activity along the Line of Actual Control between China and India. He describes the development of

SRAD | Sept. 23, 2024

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termin...

As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may

SRAD | Sept. 20, 2024

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’

Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further

SRAD | Sept. 19, 2024

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

SRAD | Sept. 18, 2024

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security

SRAD | Sept. 13, 2024

Brazil’s Attempt to Control X: The Deterioration of the Liberal World Order

Elon Musk’s clash with the Lula government raises the issue of how to promote democracy and free speech in the new technological era.

SRAD | Sept. 12, 2024

Bolivia and US Dilemmas in Engaging with Problematic Regimes in Latin Am...

I recently had the opportunity to engage with a senior Bolivian colleague connected with the government of Luis Arce regarding the country’s economic and political difficulties and its relationship with the United States. Their fundamental question

SRAD | Aug. 27, 2024

The Impact of the Political Orientation of Latin America, on the Advance...

Latin America is currently undergoing unprecedented political shifts. This phenomenon is characterized by the recent electoral victories of left-ofcenter candidates in Mexico in 2018; Argentina in 2019; Peru, Honduras, and Chile in 2021; and in

SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?

Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a strategic

SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Markus Garlauskas

In episode 17 of CLSC Dialogues, Markus Garlauskas discusses why we should think about the potential for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific and what lessons we should be learning from analyzing the topic. He talks about why we should think about

SRAD | Aug. 21, 2024

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 

.adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent

SRAD | Aug. 20, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with COL Marco Lyons

In episode 16 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Marco Lyons discusses how the Pacific Army sees, understands, and utilizes landpower in the region from peacetime to a potential protracted war. He further articulates how the U.S. Army, Pacific conducts

SRAD | Aug. 15, 2024

Russia's Deepening Ties to North Korea: China's Gateway to the Arctic?

Recently, the Moscow Times reported that Russia would coordinate a deal with China and North Korea to allow Chinese ships to navigate through a seventeen-kilometer stretch of the Tumen River to the Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the Pacific

SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

AY25 Campaign Planning Handbook

The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint

SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary

| Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 |  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a story of alliance endurance

SRAD | Aug. 8, 2024

Protracted War Series: A discussion with Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens

In episode 15 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens looks at the potential for a protracted war between the US and China by exploring how a conflict could start and variables the CCP leadership may be watching. She then addresses public

SRAD | Aug. 2, 2024

Secrecy and Solidarity: PRC Internal Security Partnerships with Socialis...

Publication: China Brief Volume: 24 Issue: 15, The Jamestown Foundation: Global Research & AnalysisThe People’s Republic of China (PRC) engages in extensive security cooperation with other single-party socialist states. This includes deploying the

SRAD | July 25, 2024

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the

SRAD | July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strate...

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability

SRAD | July 18, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Josh Arostegui

In episode 14 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui discusses some of the more salient points regarding how prepared the PRC is for a protracted war. He describes how the PLA remains designed to execute large-scale combat operations through the existence

SRAD | July 15, 2024

An Interview with Dennis Blasko

In episode 13 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui, and Rick Gunnell interview renowned China expert Dennis Blasko. They discuss the origins of Blasko's interest in China and the PLA, then delve into his research and writing on Chinese landpower. Blasko

SRAD | July 15, 2024

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American De...

While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s

SRAD | July 11, 2024

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Arm...

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr. commanded US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. He served as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945, executing

SRAD | July 10, 2024

What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday?

The inaugural July commemoration is an inflection point and an opportunity for the Yoon government to advance both domestic and foreign policy priorities.On July 14, South Korea will commemorate its inaugural North Korean Defectors’ Day. The new

SRAD | July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war

SRAD | July 8, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

The land-locked South American country of Paraguay receives little attention in Washington D.C. relative to its strategic importance for the region and the U.S. It is larger than Germany, and like Germany, its impact, and the nature of its

SRAD | July 2, 2024

On "War with China: A View from Early 2024"

Episode 12 of CLSC Dialogues: In 2012, the late diplomat and RAND Corporation Senior Fellow James Dobbins wrote an article titled “War with China,” which was published in the journal Survival. The article asserted that there were several potential

SRAD | July 1, 2024

Landpower, Homeland Defense, and Defending Forward in US Indo-Pacific Co...

Homeland defense does not begin at the water’s edge, at least not on the east and west coasts of the United States. In the twenty-first–century geopolitical environment, the definition of homeland defense must now extend well beyond North American

SRAD | June 28, 2024

COMMENTARY: Studying Landpower in the Indo-Pacific

The China Landpower Studies Center at the U.S. Army War College produces research and analysis of China's strategic landpower for U.S. policymakers and military leaders. For many casual observers, the U.S. Army has little to say in how a future war

SRAD | June 27, 2024

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the lessons the US Army must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War as the

SRAD | June 26, 2024

On the 5th Security Force

In episode 11 of CLSC Dialogues, Colonel Rich Butler and Colonel Brandon Teague discuss the 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade and its contributions to the US Indo-Pacific and how persistent presence and advisory roles contribute to the concept of

SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Chinese Strategy and Statecraft: Coercion and Competition in th...

What are the objectives of China’s foreign and security policies under Xi Jinping?  What is the role of Australia and other middle powers in responding to Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific?  Are the United States’ China policies set to change with

SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Paramilitaries Abroad: China’s Use of Nontraditional Security F...

Episode 107 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how China uses its paramilitary and internal security forces to project power abroad and build global influence.Our guests begin by dissecting the Chinese security apparatus: contrasting the

SRAD | June 18, 2024

"Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the C...

In episode 10 of CLSC Dialogues, MAJ Brennan Deveraux, national security researcher in the Strategic Studies Institute, and Josh Arostegui, research director and chair of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss Deveraux's recent article, "Arming

SRAD | June 11, 2024

Politics of the North Korean Diaspora

In episode 9 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses her book, Politics of the North Korean Diaspora, which was published by Cambridge University Press in January 2024. The conversation includes a look at how North Korea’s regime

SRAD | June 5, 2024

On Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the F...

In episode 8, COL Rich Butler and Dr. John Deni discuss Deni's book Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. The conversation addresses Europe's relationship with China and what it means for

SRAD | May 30, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Maritime Studies Institute

In episode 7 of CLSC Dialogues, Christopher Sharman and Dr. Andrew S. Erickson discuss the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College. Sharman serves as the director of the China Maritime Studies Institute and Erickson—who helped stand

SRAD | May 29, 2024

China Center Director Series – Center for the Study of Chinese Military ...

In episode 6, Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, the director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, discusses the organization’s research efforts, product lines,

SRAD | May 29, 2024

Parameters | Summer 2024

The Summer issue is out! In this edition: "What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; A Major's Perspective “Professional Discourse Is Shaping the Force”; Civil-Military

SRAD | May 29, 2024

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry

Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor

SRAD | May 28, 2024

China Center Director Series – Marine Corps University

Episode 5 of CLSC Dialogues features Daniel Rice, the China political and military strategy subject matter expert at Marine Corps University. In this episode, he explains how Marine Corps University and its Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and

SRAD | May 28, 2024

The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?

Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is

SRAD | May 27, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Aerospace Studies Institute

Episode 4 features Dr. Brendan Mulvaney is the director of the department of the Air Force's China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). In this episode, Mulvaney introduces CASI, its mission, researchers, product lines, and more. The organization is

SRAD | May 23, 2024

China-Argentina Space Engagement

This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit from Argentina’s broader

SRAD | May 20, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Landpower Studies Center

In episode 3 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses the scope and mission of the CLSC and introduces its researchers and 2024

SRAD | May 13, 2024

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response

Summary: In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from

SRAD | May 1, 2024

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path

The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption. Paraguay, a land-locked country at the heart of South America, is strategically important for

SRAD | April 25, 2024

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment

SRAD | April 24, 2024

The Role and Impact of US Army Pacific in the Indo-Pacific Region

In the second episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, General Charles A. Flynn, commander of US Army Pacific and Colonel Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss the role and impact of the US Army in the

SRAD | April 18, 2024

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems

SRAD | April 17, 2024

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge –...

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,”

SRAD | April 12, 2024

Risk, Rumors, and Reprisals: The Imagined Side of Professional Writing

With the Army’s renewed emphasis on professional writing, a disturbing narrative will likely resurface that publishing is dangerous to an author’s career. While many have articulated the benefits of joining the professional discourse, myself

SRAD | April 11, 2024

War with China: A View from Early 2024

US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war.The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally

SRAD | April 9, 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations ...

This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for


SRAD | April 4, 2024

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the

SRAD | March 28, 2024

Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"

Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally

SRAD | March 27, 2024

New Technologies and Emerging Trends in the Indo-Pacific

In this inaugural episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, Lieutenant General Xavier T. Brunson, the commanding general of I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, retired Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army, and Colonel Rich

SRAD | March 22, 2024

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn...

These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the

SRAD | March 20, 2024

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the Ch...

Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic

SRAD | March 12, 2024

Argentina Political and Economic Challenges

From February 24 through March 2, I traveled to Argentina to speak with government, business and academic experts regarding the situation in the country, including 27 interactions involving some 300 people. Argentina is at a pivotal moment, as its

SRAD | March 5, 2024

EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?

Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is

SRAD | March 4, 2024

Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side

If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor.Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that

SRAD | March 4, 2024

The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro

From 2019 to 2020, I had the honor of serving on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning staff (S/P). One of my priority focus areas was the dictatorship of Nicholas Maduro and the dangers it posed to the Venezuelan people and to the

SRAD | Feb. 26, 2024

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean

An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant

SRAD | Feb. 20, 2024

Why North Korea Survives

Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.North Korea’s recent jettisoning of reunification with South Korea as a national goal has raised much speculation about Pyongyang’s goals and strategy. Relatively overlooked in recent debates over

SRAD | Feb. 16, 2024

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview

As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in

SRAD | Feb. 14, 2024

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion

CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and

SRAD | Feb. 8, 2024

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Compa...

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of

SRAD | Feb. 8, 2024

The Mixed Message About China's Economy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message.SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So I think that the idea

SRAD | Feb. 6, 2024

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin...

The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his

SRAD | Feb. 2, 2024

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based Internati...

The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth,

SRAD | Jan. 25, 2024

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on Inte...

Editors: Michael E. Lynch, Howard G. CoombsThe 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference

SRAD | Jan. 22, 2024

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling

The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated

SRAD | Jan. 19, 2024

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-av...

Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at