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July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

By John R. Deni

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.

Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — selling the country all it needs to build its own armaments, including microchips for drones and missiles, machine tools and explosives precursors — have renewed debate in the West over how quickly Moscow will be able to reconstitute its land power.

Not long ago, conventional wisdom held that the losses sustained by Russia’s ground forces through 2022 to 2023 were substantial enough to require several years of rebuilding. Casualties in the hundreds of thousands and the loss of two-thirds of its massive tank force led many to reason Russia was down and out — at least in the short run. The only disagreement seemed to be over how many years it would take to rebuild.

Published by POLITICO: 

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