Recent Publications

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 9, 2025 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

Slide for the Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment
March 13, 2017 — Author: Dr R Evan EllisView the Executive Summary This monograph comparatively examines the content and country focus of high-level diplomacy for each of the two actors, as well as the volume and patterns of trade, the activities of Indian and Chinese companies in the region, and their relationship to their respective governments in eight sectors:... MORE

Strategic Insights: Un-"Steady" State Operations: Redefining the Approach to Phase Zero in a Complex World
June 20, 2016 — LTC Thomas R. Matelski In recent months, there has been much discussion in the U.S. Department of Defense and its subordinate components over the conduct of steady state operations, or as defined in the Joint Operation Planning Process (JOPP), Phase Zero (Phase 0) operations.1 While important to military planning, the current construct for Phase 0... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: Un-"Steady" State Operations: Redefining the Approach to Phase Zero in a Complex World

Strategic Insights: The China-CELAC Summit: Opening a New Phase in China-Latin America-U.S. Relations?
January 27, 2015 — Dr. R. Evan EllisNote: This article was first published in The ManzellaReport.com available from www.manzellareport.com/index.php/world/945-the-china-celac-summit-opening-a-new-phase-in-china-latin-america-u-s-relations.Since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) began to open its economy in 1978, its relationship with Latin America and the... MORE

Strategic Insights: The Dragon in the Tropics: China’s Military Expansion into the Western Hemisphere
September 30, 2014 — Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz A prosperous and stable China will not be a threat to any country. It will only be a positive force for world peace. Vice President Xi Jinping, 2012 Despite the fact that Latin America has been an area of U.S. influence since 1823... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: The Dragon in the Tropics: China's Military Expansion into the Western Hemisphere

Op-Ed: Reflections on “The China Threat”
August 1, 2013 — Prof. Neil J. DiamantIt seems that not a day passes without dire warnings about China’s rising economic and military power. China, we are told, is a multi-front menace. Due to “rising nationalism” and an insatiable demand for energy, China covets increasingly large areas of the South China Sea, and ominously seeks to establish a robust forward... MORE

China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position
August 1, 2011 — Author: Dr R Evan Ellis This monograph examines Chinese military engagement with Latin America in five areas: (1) meetings between senior military officials; (2) lower-level military-to-military interactions; (3) military sales; (4) military-relevant commercial interactions; and, (5) Chinese physical presence within Latin America, all of which have... MORE

Political Warfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: U.S. Capabilities and Chinese Operations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa
March 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Donovan C Chau Domestic and international terrorism aside, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), are vying for influence over African governments and people. Not unlike the Cold War, the primary means of exerting influence in Africa is through the use of nonviolent instruments of grand strategy. The author considers... MORE

Chinese Arms Exports: Policy, Players and Process
July 1, 2000 — Authors: Dr Bates Gill, Mr Evan S Medeiros Global arms proliferation continues to be a key concern for the United States, particularly the export role of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although China experienced a significant decline in its arms exports in the 1990s (down from the boom times of the 1980s), the PRC provides a significant... MORE

China’s Military Potential
October 1, 1998 — Author: Dr Larry M Wortzel This monograph provides an appraisal of the ability of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to build a credible military force in the 21st century. The author examines a complicated set of factors, which when taken together, equates to potential military power in China's case. Perhaps foremost among these factors is the... MORE

What’s with the Relationship between America’s Army and China’s PLA?
September 1, 1996 — Author: COL Jer Donald Get In May 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry asked the Army to examine various ways to re-establish the army-to-army ties which existed between the U.S. Army and Beijing's People's Liberation Army (PLA) prior to the 1980s. U.S. President George Bush ordered a curb in military-to-military ties following the Tiananmen... MORE