Recent Publications - Tag deterrence

Frustrating the Fait Accompli: How Rocket Artillery Changes the Taiwan Situation
February 11, 2026 — China is furious about the United States’ recently announced $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, and for good reason. Beyond simply comprising a significant assortment of military equipment, the package supports Taiwan’s developing asymmetric-warfare concept and effectively transforms Taiwan’s strike capabilities. Just as the rise of rocket artillery in Europe a few years ago challenged the assumed speed at which Russia could seize the Baltic states, the rocket and missile capabilities outlined in the new arms package fundamentally alter the calculus of a potential Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Specifically, the emerging capabilities, nested within an asymmetric-warfare concept, provide Taiwan the ability to increase survivability through dispersion, strike targets in China, and concentrate fires to frustrate nearly every step of an amphibious operation... MORE

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Book Review: Arms Control at a Crossroads: Renewal or Demise?
January 12, 2026 — Arms Control at a Crossroads is a timely examination of arms control in a changing and complex strategic environment. The essays collected cover the broad context of arms control, specific examples of nuclear powers, and a review of arms control domains. The reviewer sees this book as “a useful addition to the library of any specialists in the field.”... MORE

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Parameters | Winter 2025–26
December 17, 2025 — Welcome to the Winter 2025–26 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, two forums (Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Considerations for Modern Warfare), and the new Strategic Competition Corner... MORE

Parameters | Autumn 2025
September 16, 2025 — Welcome to the Autumn 2025 issue of Parameters. We open with two In Focus commentaries. The first, “A Case for Military Proportionality: Disabling Nuclear Plants” by Henry Sokolski, offers practical ways in which military planners can disable civilian targets, such as nuclear infrastructure, without undermining operational goals, alliance cohesion, or long-term political objectives. Our second commentary, “The Consequences of Declining Patriotism in the United States” by Neil N. Snyder, presents findings from a national survey showing a decline in patriotism, especially among Generation Z nonveterans. His article highlights a growing civil-military values gap with implications for recruitment and national cohesion... MORE

Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twenty-First Century
August 6, 2025 — This integrated research project highlights gaps in the US Army’s understanding of, and preparations for, a great-power war in the twenty-first century. The project employs historical analysis to enhance Army leaders’ understanding of great-power wars, provides novel ways to improve US strategies for deterring a great-power war, and explores ways the United States can better prepare for a great-power war... MORE

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Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence
July 22, 2025 — Can NATO increase the risks and costs of war for an adversary without unduly raising the alliance’s own? Can the alliance strengthen the credibility of NATO’s extended deterrence through a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war”? ... MORE

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It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Rethinking the Relevance of Self-Deterrence
April 24, 2024 — Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars. ... MORE

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait (Part 2)
April 24, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations ... MORE

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait - Part 1
April 11, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 16, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This podcast introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete... MORE