Recent Publications

War with China: A View from Early 2024
April 11, 2024 — US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy... MORE

Thumbnail - War with China: A View from Early 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations in the Aksai Chin in 2020 and 2021
April 9, 2024 — This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for further analysis of the PLA deployment along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Aksai Chin. Chinese Army units appear ready to remain in a defensive posture near the LAC the Aksai Chin indefinitely. ... MORE

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"
March 28, 2024 — Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally reassess how it provided security to its members states. Since then, the alliance has had to... MORE

Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense" by John R. Deni
https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/research-handbook-on-nato-9781839103384.html

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts
March 22, 2024 — These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel... MORE

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts | Richard D. Butler

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem
March 20, 2024 — Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic of China, or are they solely focused on defending their own territories? Although regional nations’ aims may often overlap, they also diverge... MORE

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem By Brennan Deveraux

Argentina Political and Economic Challenges
March 12, 2024 — From February 24 through March 2, I traveled to Argentina to speak with government, business and academic experts regarding the situation in the country, including 27 interactions involving some 300 people. Argentina is at a pivotal moment, as its new libertarian President Javier Milei seeks to turn around the country’s unfolding economic collapse... MORE

Argentina Political and Economic Challenges | R. Evan Ellis

EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?
March 5, 2024 — Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is home to around 60,000 people, a thriving local farm scene and one of the world’s northernmost... MORE

Why It Matters That Sweden Is Joining NATO Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a move experts say will have a significant impact on global politics. John Deni quoted in US News & World Report

Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side
March 4, 2024 — If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor.Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that if Congress fails to fund more military assistance to Ukraine or if U.S. policy shifts dramatically... MORE

Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side
If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor. By John R. Deni

The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro
March 4, 2024 — From 2019 to 2020, I had the honor of serving on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning staff (S/P). One of my priority focus areas was the dictatorship of Nicholas Maduro and the dangers it posed to the Venezuelan people and to the region. The Maduro regime’s expulsion of the office of United Nations High Commission for Human Rights from the country, and the arrest and forced disappearance... MORE

The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro
The inability of the U.S. to facilitate a return to democracy in Venezuela does not justify accommodating dictatorship in the name of engagement. by R. Evan Ellis

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
February 26, 2024 — An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving. China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant portion of its engagement with the region. Beijing has openly acknowledged its interest in engaging with the region on security matters in the 2008 and 2016... MORE

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.