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NEWS | Aug. 17, 2026

Book Review: The Next War: Indications Intelligence in the Early Cold War

Cover for The Next War: Indications Intelligence in the Early Cold War
Military History |

Author: Timothy Andrews Sayle

| Reviewed by: Colonel William Phillips (US Army, retired), assistant professor, Department of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations, Command and General Staff College
©2026 William Phillips
 
In The Next War: Indications Intelligence in the Early Cold War, Timothy Andrews Sayle uncovers how Western intelligence agencies grappled with the challenge of predicting Soviet military intentions amid global uncertainty. Through meticulous archival research, the book reveals how early Cold War leaders anticipated conflict without provoking it, laying the foundations for modern strategic warning systems. A compelling study of fear, foresight, and fragile peace, it sheds light on the delicate balance between preparation and provocation in the nuclear age.
 

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Keywords: Cold War, Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement (TIAA), intelligence sharing, nuclear war, Canada, Soviet Union
Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews
Timothy Andrews Sayle
Colonel William Phillips
Cold War
Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement (TIAA)
Intelligence Sharing
nuclear war
Canada
Soviet Union
Recent Publications
SRAD | Aug. 11, 2026

AY27 Campaign Planning Handbook

The USAWC Campaign Planning Handbook serves as a primer and complement to Joint and Army doctrine. While joint and Service doctrine remain authoritative sources for planning, this handbook provides ideas and insights for those charged with developing
SRAD | Aug. 6, 2026

Perceiving a Competitor: Culture and Cognitive Biases of the Strong Enem...

The United States and China show distinct patterns of cultural cognition that shape their perceptions of the security environment and of each other. This monograph applies dynamic constructivist theories from cross-cultural psychology to national
SRAD | Aug. 5, 2026

Fighting with Data: Design Implications for AI-Enabled Mission-Command S...

How will artificial intelligence change war fighting? Fighting with Data argues artificial intelligence–enabled mission command does more than accelerate decisions—it redistributes cognition across human-machine networks. The result is a new logic of
SRAD | July 30, 2026

Out of the Shadows: US Intelligence Sharing and the Russia-Ukraine War, ...

The declassification and public disclosure of US intelligence in anticipation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—together with the subsequent sharing of intelligence with Ukraine during the conflict—have significant implications for national security
SRAD | July 28, 2026

SRAD Announcement: The Strategic Studies Institute Has Been Reorganized

Strategic Research & Assessment Department
SRAD | July 24, 2026

Economic Warfare: A Foundation for Twenty-First-Century Strategic Practice

Economic conflict is now a fundamental form of international competition, especially between large powers. Tariffs, sanctions, technological denial, supply-chain disruption, currency manipulation, and a host of other methods are now used daily, in
China Landpower Studies Center | July 22, 2026

China’s Community of Common Destiny and the Global Initiatives, with Dr...

Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, visiting faculty at the China Landpower Studies Center at the US Army War College and an associate professor at the University of Texas—Austin, joins the CLSC Dialogues to discuss the People’s Republic of China’s four
SRAD | June 25, 2026

From Kitchen to Combat Power: The CMC’s New Blueprint for Tactical Suste...

n April 2026, PLA Daily reported that the Material and Energy Bureau of the Central Military Commission (CMC) Logistics Support Department (中央军委后勤保障部军需能源局) has formally compiled and distributed the Military Dietary Nutrition and Standardized
SRAD | June 24, 2026

China Maritime Report #55: Loading the Well Deck: The PLA Navy's Maturin...

Since 2023, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has established an annualized rhythm of loading PLA Army (PLAA) combat, engineering, and support units onto PLA Navy (PLAN) amphibious ships for international exercises. This integration signals a
SRAD | June 22, 2026

Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges
SRAD | June 22, 2026

Systems Over Steel: How China is Redefining Amphibious Armor Survivability

The contemporary discourse on drone-driven warfare rarely suggests the end of maneuver, but it highlights an increasingly perilous gap between tactical movement and force survivability in a hypertransparent environment. Against this backdrop, the
SRAD | June 9, 2026

In Dire Straits: Iran, Hormuz, and the Risks to the Global Order

Jacob Stoil and Daphné Richemond-Barak
SRAD | June 4, 2026

Ukraine’s War Effort in Mid-2026: International Opportunities and Domest...

The circumstances of the Russia-Ukraine War—and even the nature of modern warfare itself—appear to transform with each passing year. In 2023–24, the war was one of grinding attrition reminiscent of World War I. By 2025, advances in drone technology
SRAD | June 2, 2026

Between Beijing and the Budget: The Domestic Realities of Taiwan’s Defen...

Taiwan's legislature spent six months blocking a major defense budget, then passed a scaled-down version days before the Trump-Xi summit. Jessica C. Liao and Kyle Marcrum argue why the story the US media tells is flawed.
SRAD | May 22, 2026

“An Enviable Position in the Pacific”: An interview with General Xavier ...

Guest host Tom Spahr and General Xavier Brunson, commander of United Nations Command, ROK-US Combined Forces Command, and United States Forces Korea (UNC/CFC/USFK), discuss Korea, the Indo-Pacific, and mission command.
SRAD | May 20, 2026

Corruption and PLA Generals

Rick Gunnell
SRAD | May 19, 2026

The Peru F-16 Sale: The Relationship Between Partner Politics, Extra-Hem...

On April 18, 2026, interim Peruvian President José María Balcázar temporarily suspended signing a $3.42 billion agreement for the purchase of 24 new F-16 C and D block 70 fighters, associated equipment, and support. The Peruvian government authorized
SRAD | May 15, 2026

Decoding China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

China’s latest Five-Year Plan signals that it has become more pessimistic about the global environment, seeing it as uncertain and unstable. However, the Chinese Communist Party sees opportunity in that instability to promote the Community of Common
SRAD | May 14, 2026

Taiwan’s Special Defense Budget and KMT Trip to Beijing, Part 2

In part two of this two-part episode, COL Kyle Marcrum and Dr. Jessica Liao discuss Taiwan President Lai’s special defense budget and the Kuomingdang Chair, Cheng Li-wun, visit to Beijing.
SRAD | May 13, 2026

Taiwan’s Special Defense Budget and KMT Trip to Beijing, Part 1

In part one of this two-part episode, COL Kyle Marcrum and Dr. Jessica Liao discuss Taiwan President Lai’s special defense budget and why it is stalled in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan.
SRAD | May 11, 2026

Taking a Toll: How Allowing Iran to Charge for Transit in the Strait of ...

In April, Iran began charging ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz a “toll” for safe passage. By itself, this represents a dangerous new dynamic in the Middle East that may have begun with the Houthis in Yemen as early as 2024, wherein parties
SRAD | May 6, 2026

China Maritime Report #53: Filling the Ranks: China's Military Recruitin...

This report outlines People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) recruiting processes within the overarching context of China’s military personnel accession systems. Within China, most recruitment, mobilization, and service assignment of military personnel
SRAD | April 29, 2026

Can AI Pass the US Army War College?

The US Army War College oral comprehensive examination serves as the institution’s capstone, measuring its senior officers’ strategic thinking. In early 2026, three faculty panels applied that standard to four leading commercial artificial
SRAD | April 28, 2026

On the Pacific, USARPAC, and China

In this episode, COL Mike Long and LTG Joel B. Vowell discuss the US Army Pacific and the role of USARPAC.
SRAD | April 16, 2026

2026 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: The PLA’s Capability to React to Cr...

The US Army War College (USAWC) Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) held its annual Carlisle Conference on the PLA on March 25 and 26, 2026, in the Army Heritage and Education Center at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The China Landpower Studies
SRAD | April 9, 2026

What is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?

The states most likely to draw America into its next major crisis or war are not unknowns. They are the usual suspects: The same handful of states that have threatened the United States repeatedly across decades. Interstate rivals have caused roughly
SRAD | March 3, 2026

Fighting for Intelligence in Large-Scale Combat Operations: The Role of ...

This article contends the US Army’s proposed intelligence and electronic warfare battalion–next concept constitutes an organizational solution essential for achieving intelligence dominance in large-scale combat operations. Transcending legacy
SRAD | Feb. 26, 2026

Is there still a Path for an International Security Force in Gaza

The US twenty-point peace plan that marked the end of Gaza War created an opportunity to break the political stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advance major moves. Yet, progress on some of the most critical areas of security and
SRAD | Feb. 11, 2026

Frustrating the Fait Accompli: How Rocket Artillery Changes the Taiwan S...

China is furious about the United States’ recently announced $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, and for good reason. Beyond simply comprising a significant assortment of military equipment, the package supports Taiwan’s developing asymmetric-warfare
SRAD | Feb. 4, 2026

If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict

A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Dr. Jake Rinaldi, and Bonnie Glaser on the risk of domestic social instability for Beijing if China attacked Taiwan. A podcast from The German Marshall Fund of the United States.
SRAD | Jan. 27, 2026

Discussion on the New National Security Strategy and its Relevance to th...

Rick Gunnell and Colonel Michael Long discuss the latest National Security Strategy and its implications for the US posture toward the Indo-Pacific.
SRAD | Jan. 14, 2026

Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procureme...

China’s newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) proposal, unveiled after the Fourth Party Plenum in October 2025, not only marks Beijing’s quest to achieve the People’s Liberation Army’s goal of building a so-called world-class military by
SRAD | Jan. 12, 2026

A Human-Centric Framework: Employment Principles for Lethal Autonomous W...

As lethal autonomous weapon systems become a battlefield reality, the Department of War must establish unambiguous employment criteria to allow war fighters to use these controversial systems ethically and responsibly. The updated policy should shift
SRAD | Jan. 12, 2026

A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023

As the Russia-Ukraine War passed the two-year mark, the conflict ground to an entrenched, apparent stalemate. Nevertheless, the conflict, with a blend of conventional warfare and innovative technology, offers new lessons to the US Joint Force about
SRAD | Jan. 12, 2026

The 2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: Protracted War Against the PRC

The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference brought together experts to discuss the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of
SRAD | Jan. 6, 2026

If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of "Minor Conflict" ...

Introduction by Bonnie S. Glaser: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict
SRAD | Jan. 5, 2026

How Maduro’s capture went down – a military strategist explains what goe...

The predawn seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026 was a complicated affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a
SRAD | Dec. 17, 2025

Parameters | Winter 2025–26

Welcome to the Winter 2025–26 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, two forums (Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Considerations for Modern Warfare), and the new Strategic Competition Corner.
SRAD | Dec. 17, 2025

Security Implications of the China-Russia-North Korea Triangle

This article analyzes the evolving strategic dynamics within the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and their implications for global security. It argues that while the strengthened Russia–North Korea relationship poses risks for China’s global
SRAD | Nov. 24, 2025

Meet the New CLSC Director: A Conversation on Korea

In this episode of CLSC Dialogues, Major Brennan Deveraux welcomes Colonel Michael Long, the new Director of the China Landpower Studies Center. After discussing COL Long’s thoughts on the new assignment, the conversation shifts to his recent
SRAD | Nov. 13, 2025

China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global Footprint

New data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security.
SRAD | Nov. 13, 2025

SSI Live 118 – The China Strategic Competition Seminar

In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Colonel Kyle Marcrum and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Milas on the SSI-developed China Strategic Competition Seminar. The conversation explores the origin and relevance of the seminar,
SRAD | Nov. 7, 2025

Forecasting the PRC’s Next Global Initiative

Executive Summary:• Xi Jinping could unveil a “global environmental initiative” as soon as mid-November 2025, at the COP31 summit in Brazil. This would align with previous initiatives that have been announced at international forums.• This new
SRAD | Oct. 27, 2025

The PLA’s Progress toward World-Class Ground Force Capabilities

This essay examines Xi Jinping’s dictum of creating a world-class military by 2049 and assesses the progress of the PLA ground forces toward achieving that notional benchmark.
SRAD | Oct. 16, 2025

Preparing for PRC Military Actions in Latin America in the Context of a ...

Within the new book by the U.S. Military Academy Modern Warfare Institute, “Expecting the Unexpected: Essays on Strategic Surprise in the 21st Century” comes a chapter from Dr. R. Evan Ellis: “Preparing for PRC Military Actions in Latin America in
SRAD | Oct. 14, 2025

Peru’s Complex Security Challenges and the Government Response

"From September 13 through 21, 2025, the author traveled to Lima, Peru for an event bring them together faculty from the US Army War College and it’s alumni from Peru and across the region. There, he spoke to a wide range of Peruvian security experts
SRAD | Sept. 30, 2025

Global Public Security with Chinese Characteristics

A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Bonnie Glaser on China's Global Security Initiative.
SRAD | Sept. 30, 2025

SSI Live 117 – China-Russia Relations and the Central Asian States

In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Dr. Brian Carlson, a research professor of Indo-Pacific security studies for the China Landpower Studies Center, on Central Asia. The conversation highlights two drastically different
SRAD | Sept. 26, 2025

Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Op...

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) implemented major changes to the organization, accession, and training of its army’s special operations forces (SOF) beginning in 2017, including the creation of a 12-man SOF team and establishment of a probable
SRAD | Sept. 16, 2025

Parameters | Autumn 2025

Welcome to the Autumn 2025 issue of Parameters. We open with two In Focus commentaries. The first, “A Case for Military Proportionality: Disabling Nuclear Plants” by Henry Sokolski, offers practical ways in which military planners can disable
SRAD | Sept. 5, 2025

China’s September 2025 Military Parade: How PLA Ground Forces Are Adapt...

China’s military parades are often viewed as a form of deterrence by giving Xi Jinping an opportunity to showcase the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) advanced weapons systems to the world and bring like-minded authoritarian leaders from partner
SRAD | Sept. 3, 2025

More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Paci...

This episode features the authors of the recently published monograph More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context.
SRAD | Aug. 26, 2025

Loyal Paraguay: The Peña Government’s Strategic Choice to Stay with Taiwan

From August 11-15, 2025, the author was in Asuncion, Paraguay, in an International Republican Institute (IRI) event hosted by that nation’s President Santiago Peña, bringing together government officials, diplomats, businesspersons, and civil
SRAD | Aug. 25, 2025

From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Spac...

This article examines the intersection of Arctic geopolitics and space security amid intensifying U.S., Russian, and Chinese competition. Melting ice has opened access to resources and new sea routes, elevating the Arctic’s strategic value while
SRAD | Aug. 15, 2025

The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe

NATO’s Hague summit earlier this summer has generally been viewed as a qualified success, despite — or perhaps because of — its unusually short and focused agenda. The new 5 percent defense spending commitment deserves most of the credit for this
SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under th...

Global outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. Watch Now
SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia

Bolivia, strategically at the center of South America, faces a critical election that will define its direction in its current profound economic, political and security crisis, its future relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its
SRAD | Aug. 6, 2025

Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twe...

This integrated research project highlights gaps in the US Army’s understanding of, and preparations for, a great-power war in the twenty-first century. The project employs historical analysis to enhance Army leaders’ understanding of great-power
SRAD | July 22, 2025

More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Paci...

As the US Army organizes, trains, and equips for an unforeseen future, service decisions should create or amplify relative operational advantages over the US military’s rising foe—the People’s Liberation Army. Discerning critical differences between
SRAD | July 22, 2025

Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

Can NATO increase the risks and costs of war for an adversary without unduly raising the alliance’s own? Can the alliance strengthen the credibility of NATO’s extended deterrence through a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war”? 
SRAD | July 15, 2025

Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies in...

Explore artificial intelligence’s potential for military planning! This study examines how artificial intelligence and machine learning can enhance the US Army’s common operational picture and course of action development. Learn how advanced
SRAD | July 9, 2025

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges
SRAD | June 26, 2025

Planning for Protracted Conflict With China: Five Questions to Ask

Where and how a conflict starts will affect the kind of war it will be.
SRAD | June 18, 2025

Parameters | Summer 2025

Welcome to the Summer 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific Challenges, Russia-Ukraine Issues, and Historical Studies).
SRAD | June 3, 2025

Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals

This chapter examines the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the context of its modernization process and argues that the persistence of shortcomings may undercut the confidence senior leaders would prefer
SRAD | May 20, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter II

In our second newsletter, we will share the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) team’s latest analysis and insights on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
SRAD | May 8, 2025

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China

With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China
SRAD | May 8, 2025

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas

The next few months will bring a series of high-profile multilateral engagements between China and Latin American countries, as Beijing seeks to capitalize on discontent with Trump.In the coming three months, China will have a number of opportunities
SRAD | April 29, 2025

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response

The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence
SRAD | April 24, 2025

Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future...

As one of the three branches of China’s armed forces, the People’s Armed Police (PAP) (人民武装警察) operates alongside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) (人民解放军) and the militia (民兵) as a key instrument of Chinese Communist Party power. According to the
SRAD | April 22, 2025

Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United ...

Why is 1775 depicted on the official flag of the US Army? Why did Congress form the Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion as the first non-militia unit in the army of the United Colonies? Who was the battalion’s commander, William Thompson? What happened to
SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia's the Enemy

The United States has never been directly involved in the war in Ukraine. U.S. troops weren’t sent there to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, and both sides of our political spectrum seemed intent on keeping it that way. Russia remained
SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence

The ability to adapt to a constantly evolving security environment has been critical to the success of NATO, yet this is being tested anew as the Alliance faces a second term of Donald Trump in the White House and re-embraces collective defence in
SRAD | April 21, 2025

Does NATO Still Matter?

The alliance has created economic growth, peace and stability. America’s relationship with Europe is undergoing a potentially profound reexamination. Whether and how the transatlantic bond — especially America’s commitment to NATO — will endure has
SRAD | April 15, 2025

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry

Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the
SRAD | April 15, 2025

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain

Here’s how the Pentagon can rebalance its approach to the continent without sacrificing US interests.The Trump administration has only just begun to fill its ranks with the political appointees who will flesh out the future of US defense policy. One
SRAD | April 14, 2025

LTG Matthew McFarlane: Commanding General of America's First Corps

Today we are talking with Lieutenant General Matthew McFarlane, the commanding general of America's I Corps, headquartered at Joint Base Lewis-McChord. Having served with distinction at all levels of the Army and Joint Force, he now leads the Army's
SRAD | April 11, 2025

How Chinese Leaders Conceptualize Protracted War

You're listening to CLSC Dialogues, a China Landpower Studies Center production. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the guests and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the U.S. Army War College, or any
SRAD | March 24, 2025

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand?

Mexico’s government is attempting to downplay its relationship with China to avoid Trump’s ire, but ties continue beneath the surface. In the beginning of March 2025, I traveled to Mexico to speak with a range of officials and experts about
SRAD | March 20, 2025

Parameters | Spring 2025

Welcome to the Spring 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Russia, Ukraine, and NATO; Strategic Competition and Managing National Security; and Joint Sustainment Strategies), the regular
SRAD | March 18, 2025

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation

The deployment of North Korean forces to Ukraine marks a critical inflection point in global security dynamics, challenging long-held assumptions about the limits of cooperation between authoritarian states. This development, unprecedented in its
SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the...

Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners
SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America

President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean  have
SRAD | Feb. 20, 2025

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme ...

In 2024, the US Department of Defense promulgated the latest edition of its Arctic Strategy, highlighting the need to enhance domain awareness and operational readiness to safeguard US and allied interests in the Arctic region. The Arctic possesses
SRAD | Feb. 11, 2025

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response

In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a
SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter I

With the start of the New Year, the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) would like to share with you the team’s latest analysis and insights on the People's Liberation Army (PLA).If you find value in this newsletter, please share it with colleagues
SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA

The China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) held the Carlisle Conference on the PLA at the US Army War College’s (USAWC) Army Heritage and Education Center on 16 and 17 October 2024. This year’s conference, a keystone annual event held by the USAWC
SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of...

The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and
SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the ...

In a future Taiwan contingency, the United States and its allies and partners are poised to leverage large-scale autonomous unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations to counter China’s anti-access/area denial strategy. This approach aims to mitigate
SRAD | Jan. 8, 2025

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific

Applying the military instrument of power is essential to deterrence and assurance in the Indo-Pacific. This essay explores the underappreciated application of Landpower in this critical region and assesses the effects of a few activities that assure
SRAD | Jan. 6, 2025

“Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War”

Brian Carlson and David Stone – “Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War” In this episode of CLSC Dialogues, Brian Carlson interviews David Stone, a Russia expert from the U.S. Naval War College, about potential forms of
SRAD | Jan. 2, 2025

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable R...

The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to
SRAD | Dec. 27, 2024

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come

2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex
SRAD | Dec. 24, 2024

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC

Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos
SRAD | Dec. 19, 2024

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base...

In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in
SRAD | Dec. 18, 2024

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah A...

This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the
SRAD | Dec. 17, 2024

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty ...

This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the
SRAD | Dec. 10, 2024

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?

The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow
SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Res...

The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned
SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine
SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20

From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in
SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation

While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend
SRAD | Nov. 21, 2024

Parameters | Winter 2024–25

Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment.
SRAD | Nov. 14, 2024

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-...

The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its
SRAD | Nov. 12, 2024

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean

This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating
SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay

This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to
SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

“China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strat...

Dr. R. Evan Ellis discusses his recent article written for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs titled, “China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response.”  This illuminating discussion covers what China is doing
SRAD | Nov. 6, 2024

Venezuela: The Path Forward

Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez
SRAD | Oct. 28, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to
SRAD | Oct. 18, 2024

Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China

From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in
SRAD | Oct. 17, 2024

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical...

Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed
SRAD | Oct. 15, 2024

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security an...

Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners.
SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

PRC Strategic Adaptation in Africa

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s expanding security footprint in Africa, marked by increased military cooperation and infrastructure investments, poses a significant challenge to US strategic interests. As outlined in the Department of
SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania

The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a
SRAD | Oct. 4, 2024

Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines

Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the
SRAD | Sept. 24, 2024

“A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations...

In episode 18 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui interviews prominent China expert Dennis Blasko on his analysis of PLA Army and Boader Defense Unit activity along the Line of Actual Control between China and India. He describes the development of
SRAD | Sept. 23, 2024

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termin...

As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may
SRAD | Sept. 20, 2024

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’

Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further
SRAD | Sept. 19, 2024

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson
SRAD | Sept. 18, 2024

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security
SRAD | Sept. 13, 2024

Brazil’s Attempt to Control X: The Deterioration of the Liberal World Order

Elon Musk’s clash with the Lula government raises the issue of how to promote democracy and free speech in the new technological era.
SRAD | Sept. 12, 2024

Bolivia and US Dilemmas in Engaging with Problematic Regimes in Latin Am...

I recently had the opportunity to engage with a senior Bolivian colleague connected with the government of Luis Arce regarding the country’s economic and political difficulties and its relationship with the United States. Their fundamental question
SRAD | Aug. 27, 2024

The Impact of the Political Orientation of Latin America, on the Advance...

Latin America is currently undergoing unprecedented political shifts. This phenomenon is characterized by the recent electoral victories of left-ofcenter candidates in Mexico in 2018; Argentina in 2019; Peru, Honduras, and Chile in 2021; and in
SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?

Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a strategic
SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Markus Garlauskas

In episode 17 of CLSC Dialogues, Markus Garlauskas discusses why we should think about the potential for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific and what lessons we should be learning from analyzing the topic. He talks about why we should think about
SRAD | Aug. 21, 2024

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 

.adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent
SRAD | Aug. 20, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with COL Marco Lyons

In episode 16 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Marco Lyons discusses how the Pacific Army sees, understands, and utilizes landpower in the region from peacetime to a potential protracted war. He further articulates how the U.S. Army, Pacific conducts
SRAD | Aug. 15, 2024

Russia's Deepening Ties to North Korea: China's Gateway to the Arctic?

Recently, the Moscow Times reported that Russia would coordinate a deal with China and North Korea to allow Chinese ships to navigate through a seventeen-kilometer stretch of the Tumen River to the Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the Pacific
SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

AY25 Campaign Planning Handbook

The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint
SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary

| Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 |  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a story of alliance endurance
SRAD | Aug. 8, 2024

Protracted War Series: A discussion with Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens

In episode 15 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens looks at the potential for a protracted war between the US and China by exploring how a conflict could start and variables the CCP leadership may be watching. She then addresses public
SRAD | Aug. 2, 2024

Secrecy and Solidarity: PRC Internal Security Partnerships with Socialis...

Publication: China Brief Volume: 24 Issue: 15, The Jamestown Foundation: Global Research & AnalysisThe People’s Republic of China (PRC) engages in extensive security cooperation with other single-party socialist states. This includes deploying the
SRAD | July 25, 2024

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the
SRAD | July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strate...

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability
SRAD | July 18, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Josh Arostegui

In episode 14 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui discusses some of the more salient points regarding how prepared the PRC is for a protracted war. He describes how the PLA remains designed to execute large-scale combat operations through the existence
SRAD | July 15, 2024

An Interview with Dennis Blasko

In episode 13 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui, and Rick Gunnell interview renowned China expert Dennis Blasko. They discuss the origins of Blasko's interest in China and the PLA, then delve into his research and writing on Chinese landpower. Blasko
SRAD | July 15, 2024

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American De...

While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s
SRAD | July 11, 2024

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Arm...

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr. commanded US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. He served as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945, executing
SRAD | July 10, 2024

What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday?

The inaugural July commemoration is an inflection point and an opportunity for the Yoon government to advance both domestic and foreign policy priorities.On July 14, South Korea will commemorate its inaugural North Korean Defectors’ Day. The new
SRAD | July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war
SRAD | July 8, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

The land-locked South American country of Paraguay receives little attention in Washington D.C. relative to its strategic importance for the region and the U.S. It is larger than Germany, and like Germany, its impact, and the nature of its
SRAD | July 2, 2024

On "War with China: A View from Early 2024"

Episode 12 of CLSC Dialogues: In 2012, the late diplomat and RAND Corporation Senior Fellow James Dobbins wrote an article titled “War with China,” which was published in the journal Survival. The article asserted that there were several potential
SRAD | July 1, 2024

Landpower, Homeland Defense, and Defending Forward in US Indo-Pacific Co...

Homeland defense does not begin at the water’s edge, at least not on the east and west coasts of the United States. In the twenty-first–century geopolitical environment, the definition of homeland defense must now extend well beyond North American
SRAD | June 28, 2024

COMMENTARY: Studying Landpower in the Indo-Pacific

The China Landpower Studies Center at the U.S. Army War College produces research and analysis of China's strategic landpower for U.S. policymakers and military leaders. For many casual observers, the U.S. Army has little to say in how a future war
SRAD | June 27, 2024

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the lessons the US Army must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War as the
SRAD | June 26, 2024

On the 5th Security Force

In episode 11 of CLSC Dialogues, Colonel Rich Butler and Colonel Brandon Teague discuss the 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade and its contributions to the US Indo-Pacific and how persistent presence and advisory roles contribute to the concept of
SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Chinese Strategy and Statecraft: Coercion and Competition in th...

What are the objectives of China’s foreign and security policies under Xi Jinping?  What is the role of Australia and other middle powers in responding to Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific?  Are the United States’ China policies set to change with
SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Paramilitaries Abroad: China’s Use of Nontraditional Security F...

Episode 107 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how China uses its paramilitary and internal security forces to project power abroad and build global influence.Our guests begin by dissecting the Chinese security apparatus: contrasting the
SRAD | June 18, 2024

"Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the C...

In episode 10 of CLSC Dialogues, MAJ Brennan Deveraux, national security researcher in the Strategic Studies Institute, and Josh Arostegui, research director and chair of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss Deveraux's recent article, "Arming
SRAD | June 11, 2024

Politics of the North Korean Diaspora

In episode 9 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses her book, Politics of the North Korean Diaspora, which was published by Cambridge University Press in January 2024. The conversation includes a look at how North Korea’s regime
SRAD | June 5, 2024

On Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the F...

In episode 8, COL Rich Butler and Dr. John Deni discuss Deni's book Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. The conversation addresses Europe's relationship with China and what it means for
SRAD | May 30, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Maritime Studies Institute

In episode 7 of CLSC Dialogues, Christopher Sharman and Dr. Andrew S. Erickson discuss the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College. Sharman serves as the director of the China Maritime Studies Institute and Erickson—who helped stand
SRAD | May 29, 2024

China Center Director Series – Center for the Study of Chinese Military ...

In episode 6, Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, the director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, discusses the organization’s research efforts, product lines,
SRAD | May 29, 2024

Parameters | Summer 2024

The Summer issue is out! In this edition: "What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; A Major's Perspective “Professional Discourse Is Shaping the Force”; Civil-Military
SRAD | May 29, 2024

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry

Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
SRAD | May 28, 2024

China Center Director Series – Marine Corps University

Episode 5 of CLSC Dialogues features Daniel Rice, the China political and military strategy subject matter expert at Marine Corps University. In this episode, he explains how Marine Corps University and its Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and
SRAD | May 28, 2024

The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?

Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is
SRAD | May 27, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Aerospace Studies Institute

Episode 4 features Dr. Brendan Mulvaney is the director of the department of the Air Force's China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). In this episode, Mulvaney introduces CASI, its mission, researchers, product lines, and more. The organization is
SRAD | May 23, 2024

China-Argentina Space Engagement

This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit from Argentina’s broader
SRAD | May 20, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Landpower Studies Center

In episode 3 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses the scope and mission of the CLSC and introduces its researchers and 2024
SRAD | May 13, 2024

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response

Summary: In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from
SRAD | May 1, 2024

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path

The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption. Paraguay, a land-locked country at the heart of South America, is strategically important for
SRAD | April 25, 2024

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment
SRAD | April 24, 2024

The Role and Impact of US Army Pacific in the Indo-Pacific Region

In the second episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, General Charles A. Flynn, commander of US Army Pacific and Colonel Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss the role and impact of the US Army in the
SRAD | April 18, 2024

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems
SRAD | April 17, 2024

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge –...

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,”
SRAD | April 12, 2024

Risk, Rumors, and Reprisals: The Imagined Side of Professional Writing

With the Army’s renewed emphasis on professional writing, a disturbing narrative will likely resurface that publishing is dangerous to an author’s career. While many have articulated the benefits of joining the professional discourse, myself
SRAD | April 11, 2024

War with China: A View from Early 2024

US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war.The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally
SRAD | April 9, 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations ...

This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for
SRAD | April 4, 2024

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on
SRAD | April 4, 2024

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the
SRAD | March 28, 2024

Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"

Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally
SRAD | March 27, 2024

New Technologies and Emerging Trends in the Indo-Pacific

In this inaugural episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, Lieutenant General Xavier T. Brunson, the commanding general of I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, retired Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army, and Colonel Rich
SRAD | March 22, 2024

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn...

These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the
SRAD | March 20, 2024

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the Ch...

Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic
SRAD | March 12, 2024

Argentina Political and Economic Challenges

From February 24 through March 2, I traveled to Argentina to speak with government, business and academic experts regarding the situation in the country, including 27 interactions involving some 300 people. Argentina is at a pivotal moment, as its
SRAD | March 5, 2024

EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?

Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is
SRAD | March 4, 2024

Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side

If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor.Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that
SRAD | March 4, 2024

The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro

From 2019 to 2020, I had the honor of serving on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning staff (S/P). One of my priority focus areas was the dictatorship of Nicholas Maduro and the dangers it posed to the Venezuelan people and to the
SRAD | Feb. 26, 2024

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean

An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant
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