Recent Publications

A Preliminary Look from Washington at Colombia’s New Direction and Security Challenges
October 28, 2022 — Dr. R. Evan Ellis, October 2022This work examines the likely direction of the Gustavo Petro administration in Colombia in the arena of economic, security and foreign policy, and associated challenges. Its analysis is based on key personnel appointments, statements, and initial policy actions. It argues that the administration will likely have the... MORE

A Preliminary Look from Washington at Colombia’s New Direction and Security Challenges (Gustavo Petro Familia)

Biden’s National Security Strategy: A New Era in Eurasia
October 28, 2022 — Robert E. Hamilton, October 26, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research Institute Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a reorientation of US national security policy toward “constraining” Russia While China remains the long-term US focus, the new National Security Strategy (NSS) sees Russia as a “profoundly dangerous” state that poses an “immediate... MORE

Putin is Mobilizing. Germany and France are Unlikely to Step Up.
September 26, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 26 2022 in PoliticoJohn R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He’s the author of “Coalition of the unWilling and unAble.”Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to partially mobilize Russian... MORE

Russian President Putin (from Wikipedia)

European Strategies in Post-Pandemic Peer Competition: Implications for America
September 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 25 2022 in Taylor & Francis OnlineThe recent reconceptualization of national and/or defense strategies, hangovers from the sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of the pandemic-induced recession in four of the most powerful European countries – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – will have profound implications... MORE

Sweden and Finland are on their way to NATO membership. Here’s what needs to happen next.
August 4, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Atlatic Council Sweden and Finland have just cleared a big hurdle on their path to NATO membership with the US Senate’s overwhelming vote to welcome them into the Alliance. While several other allies still need to ratify the expansion, Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO is now not a question of whether but when.Even... MORE

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers
July 27, 2022 — Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities,... MORE

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers
US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press

Russian Gas, Green Technology, and the Great Sacrifice
June 23, 2022 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann, at The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (GJIA), June 2022 This article argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the long-term energy dependencies on Moscow that Europe’s fledgling green technology will not be able to fix in the short term. While the crisis does have the power to speed their... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble
June 9, 2022 — European Realignment and the Future of American GeopoliticsDr. John R. Deni, 2022, forthcoming With the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the U.S. military footprint overseas, it’s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble by John R. Deni

Yes, Russia Might Invade a NATO Country. Here’s How the Alliance Should Prepare.
June 1, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in PoliticoRussia’s invasion has been a wake-up call: It’s time for NATO allies to get back to basics.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a careful balancing act on the part of NATO allies, who are eager to see Russia fail but also unwilling to jump into the war directly. This reflects the same challenge that has... MORE

Yes, the United States Should Weaken Russia
May 27, 2022 — The old approach of outreach and inclusion has failed. In the wake of Russia’s latest invasion, Washington must seek to erode Moscow’s power.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy Following a recent visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States wanted “to see Russia... MORE

NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
May 27, 2022 — On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy As the Biden administration monitors Moscow’s reaction to dramatic U.S. and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine as well as the punishing Western economic and financial... MORE

Toward a New Normal in Transatlantic Collective Defense
May 25, 2022 — With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its third month, it is already possible to draw some important lessons from the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) It has fundamentally altered security on the continent, prompting a reappraisal of where and how NATO allies... MORE