Recent Publications - Category External Articles

Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Operations Forces and the Move toward Professionalization
September 26, 2025 — The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) implemented major changes to the organization, accession, and training of its army’s special operations forces (SOF) beginning in 2017, including the creation of a 12-man SOF team and establishment of a probable national-level army-subordinate counterterrorism unit. Beginning in 2025, the PLA introduced several changes to improve officer accession and noncommissioned officer retention in its special operations community. This article assesses observed changes since 2017 designed to improve the PLA’s command and control of its army’s SOF units and to set the foundation for China’s elite forces becoming world-class by 2049... MORE

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Loyal Paraguay: The Peña Government’s Strategic Choice to Stay with Taiwan
August 26, 2025 — From August 11-15, 2025, the author was in Asuncion, Paraguay, in an International Republican Institute (IRI) event hosted by that nation’s President Santiago Peña, bringing together government officials, diplomats, businesspersons, and civil society, to talk about Paraguay’s unique experiences and path to development. The event was a building... MORE

From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Space Security
August 25, 2025 — This article examines the intersection of Arctic geopolitics and space security amid intensifying U.S., Russian, and Chinese competition. Melting ice has opened access to resources and new sea routes, elevating the Arctic’s strategic value while increasing reliance on space-based communications, navigation, and surveillance. Yet, vulnerabilities in... MORE

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The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe
August 15, 2025 — NATO’s Hague summit earlier this summer has generally been viewed as a qualified success, despite — or perhaps because of — its unusually short and focused agenda. The new 5 percent defense spending commitment deserves most of the credit for this perception, but there’s no escaping the conclusion that the lack of major disruptions also explains why... MORE

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A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security Initiative
August 13, 2025 — Global outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. Watch Now MORE

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia
August 13, 2025 — Bolivia, strategically at the center of South America, faces a critical election that will define its direction in its current profound economic, political and security crisis, its future relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its engagement with the United States and Western institutions, and its role in the Americas and... MORE

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Planning for Protracted Conflict With China: Five Questions to Ask
June 26, 2025 — Where and how a conflict starts will affect the kind of war it will be... MORE

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Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals
June 3, 2025 — This chapter examines the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the context of its modernization process and argues that the persistence of shortcomings may undercut the confidence senior leaders would prefer to have before deciding to initiate major combat... MORE

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Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China
May 8, 2025 — With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China and Latin America, held by the prestigious San Francisco of Quito University and FLACSO Ecuador. My... MORE

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China | R. Evan Ellis

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand?
March 24, 2025 — Mexico’s government is attempting to downplay its relationship with China to avoid Trump’s ire, but ties continue beneath the surface. In the beginning of March 2025, I traveled to Mexico to speak with a range of officials and experts about activities by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its companies in the country, among other topics.In... MORE

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand? | R. Evan Ellis

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America
February 21, 2025 — President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean have focused U.S. and global attention on the strategic importance of the challenges posed by PRC in the... MORE

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces
January 14, 2025 — The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and administrative and political factors, struggle with varying degrees of effectiveness to adapt. This paper... MORE

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces | R. Evan Ellis