Recent Publications

“The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning”
January 14, 2025 — The Indications and Warnings subfield of intelligence has traditionally divided warnings into a dichotomy of “ambiguous” and “unambiguous” that gives policymakers a false sense of security. In this episode, Regan Copple examines why unambiguous warning has become an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast Regan Copple | “The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning”

Parameters | Autumn 2024
August 29, 2024 — Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, two In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major’s Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a... MORE

Command Decision: Ethical Leadership in the Information Environment
April 30, 2019 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive Summary Big data amplifies a classical problem of military leadership, namely, making critical decisions based on limited and often unreliable information. This monograph considers three leadership models that provide an alternative to an overreliance on technological solutions to address new challenges... MORE

Cover for Command Decision: Ethical Leadership in the Information Environment

Parameters VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017–18
March 8, 2018 — Editor: Dr Antulio J Echevarria IIFEATURES: Exploring War’s Character & Nature. "Clausewitz’s Theory of War and Victory in Contemporary Conflict" by Emile Simpson. "Will War’s Nature Change in the Seventh Military Revolution?" by F. G. Hoffman. Learning from Military Transformations. "Lessons Unlearned: Army Transformation and Low-Intensity... MORE

Cover for Parameters VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017–18

Military Contingencies in Megacities and Sub-Megacities
December 9, 2016 — Authors: Mr Werner Selle, Dr Phil WilliamsView the Executive SummaryUrbanization is one of the most important mega-trends of the 21st century. Consequently, the possibility of U.S. military involvement in a megacity or sub-megacity is an eventuality that cannot be ignored. After elucidating the nature of urbanization and developing a typology in... MORE

Cartel Car Bombings in Mexico
August 16, 2013 — Authors: Dr Robert J Bunker, Mr John P Sullivan View the Executive SummaryContemporary Mexican cartel use of car bombs began in mid-July 2010 and has since escalated. Given the proximity to the United States, some literally within miles of the border, the car bombings, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years, should be of... MORE

Op-Ed: U.S. Intelligence at a Crossroads
June 17, 2011 — Dr. Stephen J. Blank Despite the killing of Osama bin Laden, this is not and should not be a time for euphoria concerning the state of U.S. intelligence. Even though all praise is due to everyone who participated in the often fruitless, but ultimately rewarding search for bin Laden, the success of this mission should not lead us to complacency... MORE

Mind-Sets and Missiles: a First Hand Account of the Cuban Missile Crisis
September 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Kenneth Michael Absher This chronology provides details and analysis of the intelligence failures and successes of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and suggests the applicability of lessons learned to the collection, analysis, and use of intelligence in strategic decisionmaking. The author describes how the crisis unfolded using the author’s... MORE