Recent Publications

Does NATO Still Matter?
April 21, 2025 — The alliance has created economic growth, peace and stability. America’s relationship with Europe is undergoing a potentially profound reexamination. Whether and how the transatlantic bond — especially America’s commitment to NATO — will endure has become an open question.To some degree, reassessment makes sense. The NATO agreement was penned over... MORE

Does NATO still matter? | Dr. John R. Deni

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
April 15, 2025 — Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the major hurdles confronting Europe are no longer defense spending and industrial capacity. At both the... MORE

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation
March 18, 2025 — The deployment of North Korean forces to Ukraine marks a critical inflection point in global security dynamics, challenging long-held assumptions about the limits of cooperation between authoritarian states. This development, unprecedented in its implications, reveals even absent formal alliances or ideological cohesion, the strategic realignment among authoritarian states has the potential to reshape the global order and future conflicts... MORE

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation
Jake Rinaldi

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather
February 20, 2025 — In 2024, the US Department of Defense promulgated the latest edition of its Arctic Strategy, highlighting the need to enhance domain awareness and operational readiness to safeguard US and allied interests in the Arctic region. The Arctic possesses vast resource potential, is geographically linked to the US homeland and allied territories, and is a strategic avenue for US force projection in the Indo-Pacific theater... MORE

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme and Hazardous Cold Weather | Jake Vartanian

“Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War”
January 6, 2025 — Brian Carlson and David Stone – “Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War” In this episode of CLSC Dialogues, Brian Carlson interviews David Stone, a Russia expert from the U.S. Naval War College, about potential forms of support that Russia might or might not provide to China in the event of a protracted war in the... MORE

CLSC Dialogues | Brian Carlson and David Stone

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
January 2, 2025 — The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to... MORE

A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy

SSI Live 114 – The Role of European Allies in the Ukraine War
December 2, 2024 — America’s European allies have played a critical role in providing military assistance to Ukraine. Can Europeans maintain that effort or even increase it if the United States reduces its role? What lessons can the United States learn from the role of its European allies in this war, which might be applicable to future rounds of strategic... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
September 19, 2024 — What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation
September 18, 2024 — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security cooperation. In recent months, US officials have increasingly called attention to the support that China is providing to Russia’s defense industry, which has helped Russia to... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation |
Brian G. Carlson