Recent Publications

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand?
March 24, 2025 — Mexico’s government is attempting to downplay its relationship with China to avoid Trump’s ire, but ties continue beneath the surface. In the beginning of March 2025, I traveled to Mexico to speak with a range of officials and experts about activities by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its companies in the country, among other topics.In... MORE

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand? | R. Evan Ellis

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America
February 21, 2025 — President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean have focused U.S. and global attention on the strategic importance of the challenges posed by PRC in the... MORE

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces
January 14, 2025 — The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and administrative and political factors, struggle with varying degrees of effectiveness to adapt. This paper... MORE

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces | R. Evan Ellis

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20
November 26, 2024 — From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Beyond the dominant role of Xi and China in each summit, the three distinct performances by Xi also provide important... MORE

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS,
APEC and the G20 | R. Evan Ellis

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay
November 7, 2024 — This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to have on the global logistics system, and its strategic implications in time of war with the United States. It argues that the project is illustrative of how the PRC... MORE

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay | R. Evan Ellis for La Red China y América Latina

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China
October 18, 2024 — From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in Beijing. The meeting, the most significant event of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) global defense... MORE

Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China | R. Evan Ellis

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity
October 15, 2024 — Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners. ... MORE

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity | Dr. R. Evan Ellis