Recent Publications - Category External Articles

Decoding China’s 15th Five-Year Plan
May 15, 2026 — China’s latest Five-Year Plan signals that it has become more pessimistic about the global environment, seeing it as uncertain and unstable. However, the Chinese Communist Party sees opportunity in that instability to promote the Community of Common Destiny, their new model of global governance. The Five-Year Plan also signals that the Chinese will continue to use the United Nations to advance this new global governance system... MORE

Slide for Decoding China’s 15th Five-Year Plan by COL Kyle Marcrum, published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute

Taking a Toll: How Allowing Iran to Charge for Transit in the Strait of Hormuz Could Undermine US Strategy in the Pacific and Beyond
May 11, 2026 — In April, Iran began charging ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz a “toll” for safe passage. By itself, this represents a dangerous new dynamic in the Middle East that may have begun with the Houthis in Yemen as early as 2024, wherein parties extort international commerce by imposing fees in exchange for safe transit as part of their war effort. Although some countries have agreed to pay Iran’s fees, many countries such as the United Kingdom as well as organizations, including one representing the majority of tanker firms, have condemned it... MORE

Just Security: Taking a Toll slide By Daphné Richemond-Barak and Jacob Stoil

China Maritime Report #53: Filling the Ranks: China's Military Recruiting System and the PLA Navy
May 6, 2026 — This report outlines People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) recruiting processes within the overarching context of China’s military personnel accession systems. Within China, most recruitment, mobilization, and service assignment of military personnel is managed through a centralized national military service system, with individual services retaining some recruitment authorities for officers, sergeants, and civilians. It is not possible to effectively discuss Navy recruitment without understanding this overarching system. ... MORE

Slide for China Maritime Report #53: Filling the Ranks: China's Military Recruiting System and the PLA Navy by Erin Richter and Joshua Arostegui

What is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?
April 9, 2026 — The states most likely to draw America into its next major crisis or war are not unknowns. They are the usual suspects: The same handful of states that have threatened the United States repeatedly across decades. Interstate rivals have caused roughly 80 percent of history’s wars and the odds of any given rivalry ending peacefully are little better than a coin toss. Yet America’s key strategy documents since the 2017 National Security Strategy have used phrases like great power competition, interstate strategic competition, and strategic competition without acknowledging the essential difference between a competition and a rivalry... MORE

Slide for the external article What is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?

Is there still a Path for an International Security Force in Gaza
February 26, 2026 — The US twenty-point peace plan that marked the end of Gaza War created an opportunity to break the political stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advance major moves. Yet, progress on some of the most critical areas of security and stability is proceeding slowly. There has been some progress like the return of all the hostages, alive... MORE

MITVIM article - Is there still a Path for an International Security Force in Gaza

If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict
February 4, 2026 — A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Dr. Jake Rinaldi, and Bonnie Glaser on the risk of domestic social instability for Beijing if China attacked Taiwan. A podcast from The German Marshall Fund of the United States... MORE

slide for China Global Podcast:
If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict

Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procurement Bottlenecks?
January 14, 2026 — China’s newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) proposal, unveiled after the Fourth Party Plenum in October 2025, not only marks Beijing’s quest to achieve the People’s Liberation Army’s goal of building a so-called world-class military by 2049. As the last major planning cycle before the 2035 benchmark for “basically achieving full modernization,” the plan also reaffirms General Secretary Xi Jinping’s core priorities: operational efficiency, technological self-reliance, and the Chinese Communist Party’s absolute command... MORE

Slide for Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procurement Bottlenecks?

If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of "Minor Conflict" and "Major War" Scenarios
January 6, 2026 — Introduction by Bonnie S. Glaser: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the... MORE

GMF: If China Attacks Taiwan article screenshot for CLSC

How Maduro’s capture went down – a military strategist explains what goes into a successful special op
January 5, 2026 — The predawn seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026 was a complicated affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a mix of extensive planning, intelligence and timing. R. Evan Ellis, a military strategist and former... MORE

Screenshot of the article covering R. Evan Ellis' interview with "The Conversation"

China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global Footprint
November 13, 2025 — New data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security... MORE

Forecasting the PRC’s Next Global Initiative
November 7, 2025 — Executive Summary: • Xi Jinping could unveil a “global environmental initiative” as soon as mid-November 2025, at the COP31 summit in Brazil. This would align with previous initiatives that have been announced at international forums. • This new initiative would complete a set of five that matches the five strands in the initial rubric of the “Community of Common Destiny” concept, Beijing’s framework for a new approach to global governance. • The PRC will likely leverage a global environmental initiative and its significant economic advantages in green energy to expand international acceptance of their alternative global governance model... MORE

The PLA’s Progress toward World-Class Ground Force Capabilities
October 27, 2025 — This essay examines Xi Jinping’s dictum of creating a world-class military by 2049 and assesses the progress of the PLA ground forces toward achieving that notional benchmark... MORE