Recent Publications

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
December 10, 2024 — The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind. ... MORE

Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
November 26, 2024 — While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side... MORE

Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation | R. Evan Ellis

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity
October 15, 2024 — Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners. ... MORE

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security and Prosperity | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
August 26, 2024 — Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a strategic disaster? Guest: Dr John R. Deni, Research Professor of Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic... MORE

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
Dr. John R. Deni

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst
July 25, 2024 — As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the country over the past 25 years of my career in government and the private sector following Venezuela leads... MORE

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response
July 22, 2024 — The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly. The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability of the Putin administration in Russia to sustain its costly campaign. The new international... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
July 15, 2024 — While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s Republic of China has avoided directly challenging Western-style democracy as a system of governance... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
R. Evan Ellis

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
July 8, 2024 — Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — selling the country all it needs to build its own armaments, including microchips... MORE

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
John R. Deni
Published by POLITICO

Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?
June 17, 2024 — The deployment of Russian warships to the Caribbean is Kabuki theater. For 15 years, a Russia whose international power projection capabilities have deteriorated significantly since the end of the Cold War has periodically sent limited, yet still threatening forces to the U.S. near abroad, in response to U.S. activities in what it regards as its... MORE

Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?

R. Evan Ellis